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作者：Brancaccio, Giulia; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Papageorgiou, Theodore
作者单位：Cornell University; Harvard University; Boston College
摘要：In this paper, we study the role of the transportation sector in world trade. We build a spatial model that centers on the interaction of the market for (oceanic) transportation services and the market for world trade in goods. The model delivers equilibrium trade flows, as well as equilibrium trade costs (shipping prices). Using detailed data on vessel movements and shipping prices, we document novel facts about shipping patterns; we then flexibly estimate our model. We use this setup to demo...
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作者：Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Georgiev, Iliyan
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Exeter; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE)
摘要：Asymptotic bootstrap validity is usually understood as consistency of the distribution of a bootstrap statistic, conditional on the data, for the unconditional limit distribution of a statistic of interest. From this perspective, randomness of the limit bootstrap measure is regarded as a failure of the bootstrap. We show that such limiting randomness does not necessarily invalidate bootstrap inference if validity is understood as control over the frequency of correct inferences in large sample...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Azar, Pablo D.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop a tractable model of endogenous production networks. Each one of a number of products can be produced by combining labor and an endogenous subset of the other products as inputs. Different combinations of inputs generate (prespecified) levels of productivity and various distortions may affect costs and prices. We establish the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium and provide comparative static results on how prices and endogenous technology/input choices (and thus the producti...
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作者：Bollerslev, Tim; Li, Jia; Patton, Andrew J.; Quaedvlieg, Rogier
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; CREATES; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：We propose a decomposition of the realized covariance matrix into components based on the signs of the underlying high-frequency returns, and we derive the asymptotic properties of the resultingrealized semicovariancemeasures as the sampling interval goes to zero. The first-order asymptotic results highlight how the same-sign and mixed-sign components load differently on economic information related to stochastic correlation and jumps. The second-order asymptotic results reveal the structure u...
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作者：Bonhomme, Stephane
作者单位：University of Chicago
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作者：Peters, Michael
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：Markups vary systematically across firms and are a source of misallocation. This paper develops a tractable model of firm dynamics where firms' market power is endogenous and the distribution of markups emerges as an equilibrium outcome. Monopoly power is the result of a process of forward-looking, risky accumulation: firms invest in productivity growth to increase markups in their existing products but are stochastically replaced by more efficient competitors. Creative destruction therefore h...
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作者：Antras, Pol; de Gortari, Alonso
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. W...
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作者：Ke Shaowei; Zhang Qi
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We propose a model of preferences in which the effect of randomization on ambiguity depends on how the unknown probability law is determined. We adopt the framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and relax the axioms. In the resulting representation of the individual's preference, the individual has a collection of sets of priors M. She believes that before she moves, nature has chosen an unknown scenario (a set of priors) from M, and from that scenario, nature will choose a prior after she mov...
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作者：Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross-sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross-sectional information to transform the unit-specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the populat...
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作者：Bernheim, B. Douglas; Sprenger, Charles
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decisionmaking under uncertainty, avoids the dominance violations implicit in Prospect Theory (PT) by assuming that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. We devise a simple and direct nonparametric method for measuring the change in relative probability weights resulting from a change in payoff ranks. We find no evidence that these weights are even modestly sensitive to ranks. Conventional c...
