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作者：Boar, Corina; Gorea, Denis; Midrigan, Virgiliu
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：We use firm-level data to document that private businesses experience large fluctuations in their profit shares. These are due to large, fat-tailed, and transitory changes in output that are not fully accompanied by changes in their inputs. We interpret this evidence using a model of entrepreneurial dynamics. Because firms can limit their exposure to risk by operating at a smaller scale, our model predicts large macroeconomic losses from uninsurable business risk, much larger than those stemmi...
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作者：Masten, Matthew A.; Poirier, Alexandre
作者单位：Duke University; Georgetown University
摘要：We show that, depending on how the impact of omitted variables is measured, it can be substantially easier for omitted variables to flip coefficient signs than to drive them to zero. This behavior occurs with Oster's delta (Oster 2019a), a widely reported robustness measure. Consequently, any time this measure is large-suggesting omitted variables may be unimportant-a much smaller value reverses the sign of the parameter of interest. We propose a modified measure of robustness to address this ...
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作者：Horner, Johannes; Samuelson, Larry
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Yale University
摘要：We consider an economy in which long-lived experts are matched with short-lived clients. Experts choose the type of client with whom they match, unobserved by the market. The interaction outcome depends on both the expert's and the client's type. We study the effects of supplying information about otherwise unobservable outcomes, such as medical report cards, to help clients identify better experts. Such information can lead to inefficient matches, as experts reject risky clients to build thei...
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作者：Bornstein, Gideon; Peter, Alessandra
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper studies the effect of nonlinear pricing on markups and misallocation. In a general equilibrium model in which firms are allowed to set a quantity-dependent pricing schedule, markup heterogeneity is not a sign of misallocation. Instead, we point to a new source of misallocation: high-taste consumers are allocated too much of each good, low-taste consumers too little. Using micro data from the retail sector, we show that nonlinear pricing is prevalent and quantify the model. Welfare l...
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作者：Greenwald, Daniel l.; Guren, Adam
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature's findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these disparate results hinge on the extent to which landlords absorb credit-driven demand, which depends on the degree of housing market segmentation. We develop a model that nests cases between the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation typically considered, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmen...
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作者：Kantor, Shawn; Whalley, Alexander
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Calgary; Western University (University of Western Ontario); University Western Ontario Hospital
摘要：We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War-era space race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to gen...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Barlevy, Gadi; Gale, Douglas
作者单位：Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; New York University
摘要：Gall (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises rates when bubbles exceed some steady-state benchmark can paradoxically lead to larger deviations from steady state. Nevertheless, this comment shows that a central bank can always dampen a bubble by setting a higher-than-expected rate, although it may have to raise the rate aggressively. This is a different point from the Miao, Shen, and Wang (2019) comment on Gall (2014). They showed that when the central bank targets a different ste...
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作者：Acampora, Michelle; Casaburi, Lorenzo; Willis, Jack
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Zurich; Columbia University
摘要：Do land market frictions cause misallocation in agriculture? In a field experiment in western Kenya, we randomly subsidize owners to rent out land. Induced rentals mostly persist after the subsidy ends and increase output and value added, consistent with misallocation. Gains from trade arise from renters choosing higher-value crops, having higher productivity, and adopting more nonlabor inputs, while renters use similar quantities of labor as owners. Induced rentals are not those with the larg...
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作者：Davis, Steven J.; Krolikowski, Pawel M.
作者单位：Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. A majority of UI recipients would accept pay cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one-third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet worker-employer discussions about cuts in pay, benefits, or hours in lieu of layoffs are exceedingly rare. Roughly one-quarter of the layoffs in our sample violate the theoretical condition for bilaterally effic...
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作者：Chinoy, Sahil; Nunn, Nathan; Sequeira, Sandra; Stantcheva, Stefanie
作者单位：Harvard University; University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20,400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race-and gender-based affirmative action, and more restric...
