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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
摘要：Military returns [reports of disease and death] serve to indicate to the restless wanderers of our race the boundaries which neither the pursuit of wealth nor the dreams of ambition should induce them to pass, and to proclaim in forcible language that man, like the elements, is controlled by a Power which hath said, Hither thou shalt come, but no further. - Tulloch, (1847, p. 259)
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作者：Ketcham, Jonathan D.; Lucarelli, Claudio; Miravete, Eugenio J.; Roebuck, M. Christopher
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Cornell University; University of Pennsylvania; Universidad de los Andes - Chile; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Under Medicare Part D, senior citizens choose prescription drug insurance offered by numerous private insurers. We examine nonpoor enrollees' actions in 2006 and 2007 using panel data. Our sample reduced overspending by $298 on average, with gains by 81 percent of them. The greatest improvements were by those who overspent most in 2006 and by those who switched plans. Decisions to switch depended on individuals' overspending in 2006 and on individual-specific effects of changes in their curren...
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作者：Kirchler, Michael; Huber, Juergen; Stoeckl, Thomas
作者单位：University of Innsbruck; University of Gothenburg
摘要：To explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988), we vary the fundamental value process (constant or declining) and the cash-to-asset value ratio (constant or increasing). We observe high mispricing in treatments with a declining fundamental value, while overvaluation emerges when coupled with an increasing C/A ratio. A questionnaire reveals that the declining fundamental value process confuses subjects, as they expect the ...
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作者：Baliga, Sandeep; Sjoestroem, Tomas
作者单位：Northwestern University; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Two players choose hawkish or dovish actions in a conflict game with incomplete information. An extremist, who can either be a hawk or a dove, attempts to manipulate decision making. If actions are strategic complements, a hawkish extremist increases the likelihood of conflict, and reduces welfare, by sending a public message which triggers hawkish behavior from both players. If actions are strategic substitutes, a dovish extremist instead sends a public message which causes one player to beco...
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作者：Chien, YiLi; Cole, Harold; Lustig, Hanno
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Our paper examines whether the failure of unsophisticated investors to rebalance their portfolios can help to explain the countercyclical volatility of aggregate risk compensation in financial markets. To answer this question, we set up a model in which a large mass of investors do not rebalance their portfolio shares in response to aggregate shocks, while a smaller mass of active investors do. We find that intermittent rebalancers more than double the effect of aggregate shocks on the time va...
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作者：Ortoleva, Pietro
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Testing model. According to it, the agent follows Bayes' rule if she receives information to which she assigned a probability above a threshold. Otherwise, she looks at a prior over priors, updates it using Bayes' rule for second-order priors, an...
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作者：Michaillat, Pascal
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
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作者：Jimenez, Gabriel; Ongena, Steven; Peydro, Jose-Luis; Saurina, Jesus
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Tilburg University; Pompeu Fabra University; European Central Bank
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作者：Arkolakis, Costas; Costinot, Arnaud; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Micro-level data have had a profound influence on research in international trade over the last ten years. In many regards, this research agenda has been very successful. New stylized facts have been uncovered and new trade models have been developed to explain these facts. In this paper we investigate to what extent answers to new micro-level questions have affected answers to an old and central question in the field: how large are the welfare gains from trade? A crude summary of our results ...
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作者：Taylor, Eric S.; Tyler, John H.
作者单位：Stanford University; Brown University
