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作者：Andreolli, Michele; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：Boston College; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study how consumption responds to unexpected, transitory income gains of different sizes using hypothetical questions from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Affluent households exhibit higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of large gains, while liquidity-poor families show higher MPCs out of small gains. The spending patterns of higher earners align with models featuring non-homothetic preferences, whereas borrowing constraints explain the heterogeneity among l...
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作者：Giannoulakis, Stelios; Sakellaris, Plutarchos
作者单位：Athens University of Economics & Business
摘要：During the Greek Depression, which saw a 22 percent decline in output, young firms and small firms experienced significantly steeper declines in sales growth compared to their mature and larger counterparts. This disparity was largely driven by adverse demand shocks and was further intensified by financing constraints (FCs), with a significant interaction between these two factors amplifying the impact. Firm-level heterogeneity played a critical role in shaping macroeconomic outcomes, with the...
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作者：Graham, James; McDowall, Robert A.
作者单位：University of Sydney; Australian National University
摘要：We study consumption spending responses to predictable income using household-level data from a US financial institution. Even for households with large liquid asset balances, we find no spending in anticipation of income receipt, substantial spending following receipt, and significant front-loading with respect to date of receipt. To rationalize these findings, we develop a tractable model of mental accounts where consumption choices are partitioned across current income and current assets. O...
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作者：De Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brown University
摘要：Traditional international real business cycle (IRBC) models produce a weak relationship between trade and cross-country real GDP (RGDP) correlations (corrRGDP), contradicting empirical findings. We reassess this quantitative puzzle in a many-country model featuring (i) global value chains, (ii) monopolistic competition, (iii fluctuations in the number of varieties, and (iv) RGDP measurement using double deflation. In this framework, fluctuations in imported inputs cause profit and efficiency v...
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作者：Bundick, Brent; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes shortfalls rather than deviations of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a...
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作者：Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric; Ermolov, Andrey
作者单位：Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Fordham University
摘要：We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks. We distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and bad uncertainty, associated with negative skewness. The Great Moderation is driven by a reduction in the volatility of AS shocks and the Gaussian component of AD shocks. The increased role of bad demand uncertainty implies that the conditional skewness of GDP growth and inflation has decreased over time. The correlation between AS/AD s...
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作者：Eeckhout, Jan; Hedtrich, Christoph; Pinheiro, Roberto
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); University of Edinburgh; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We show that differential IT investment across cities has been a key driver of job and wage polarization since the 1990s. Using a novel dataset, we establish two stylized facts: IT investment is highest in firms in large and expensive cities, and the decline in routine cognitive occupations is most prevalent in large and expensive cities. We propose and estimate a model and find that the fall in IT prices helps explain the wage gap between routine and nonroutine cognitive jobs, as well as the ...
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作者：Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao; Xu, Zhiwei
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Central University of Finance & Economics; Fudan University
摘要：Using confidential loan-level data, we examine how Basel III influenced the responses of bank risk-taking to monetary policy shocks in China. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, exploiting disparities in lending behavior between high-and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. Our findings reveal a novel risk-weighting channel through which monetary policy easing significantly reduced bank risk-taking. However, this risk reduction was achieved by shifting le...
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作者：Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; Goensch, Johannes
作者单位：Stockholm University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：We analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have rather precise beliefs. Using a heterogeneous agents life cycle model, we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on income, consumption, and wealth, implying a substantial loss in individual welfare compared...
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作者：Kaymak, Baris; Leung, David; Poschke, Markus
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; National Taiwan University; McGill University
摘要：We assess the empirical relevance of different macroeconomic modeling approaches to wealth concentration, using the joint distribution of earnings, capital income, and net worth in combination with an OLG model of household heterogeneity. We find large earnings disparities to be the primary source of US wealth concentration. This reflects the fact that labor income, from salaries but also from entrepreneurship, is a major income source for top income and wealth groups in the data. Bequests and...
