From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bundick, Brent; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210381
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: optimal monetary-policy; cyclical behavior; equilibrium unemployment; optimal inflation; keynesian model; sticky prices; VACANCIES; search

摘要

We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes shortfalls rather than deviations of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a shortfalls rule raises average inflation and nominal policy rates by 90 basis points, reduces the likelihood of a binding zero lower bound, and implies a steeper and nonlinear Phillips curve. (JEL E24, E31, E43, E52, E58, J64)