Trade, Value Added, and Productivity Linkages: A Quantitative Analysis†

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: De Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brown University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210192
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: BUSINESS-CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION; vertical specialization; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; intermediate inputs; transmission; comovement; shocks; countries; origins; gains

摘要

Traditional international real business cycle (IRBC) models produce a weak relationship between trade and cross-country real GDP (RGDP) correlations (corrRGDP), contradicting empirical findings. We reassess this quantitative puzzle in a many-country model featuring (i) global value chains, (ii) monopolistic competition, (iii fluctuations in the number of varieties, and (iv) RGDP measurement using double deflation. In this framework, fluctuations in imported inputs cause profit and efficiency variations, reflected in measured GDP and productivity fluctuations. Using actual variations in trade linkages, the model replicates 70 percent of observed bilateral trade linkages to corrRGDP slope and 60 percent of productivity correlation slope. (JEL E13, E23, E32, F12, F23, F44, L14)