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作者：Breinlich, Holger; Leromain, Elsa; Novy, Dennis; Sampson, Thomas
作者单位：University of Surrey; University of Antwerp; Universite Catholique Louvain; University of Warwick; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR in...
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作者：Rachel, Lukasz
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper examines the behavior of individuals susceptible to a deadly disease in a tractable equilibrium setting. We analytically characterize individually optimal mitigation behavior and the resulting equilibrium trajectory. Analysis is facilitated by a phase diagram. A key insight is that individually optimal behavior of those susceptible to the disease results in excessive caution. This behavior flattens the epidemic curve and prolongs the epidemic. In contrast, socially optimal behavior ...
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作者：Andreolli, Michele; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：Boston College; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study how consumption responds to unexpected, transitory income gains of different sizes using hypothetical questions from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Affluent households exhibit higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of large gains, while liquidity-poor families show higher MPCs out of small gains. The spending patterns of higher earners align with models featuring non-homothetic preferences, whereas borrowing constraints explain the heterogeneity among l...
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作者：Bolhuis, Marijn; Rachapalli, Swapnika; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of British Columbia; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We exploit substantial variation in land-market institutions across Indian states and detailed household-level panel data to assess the effect of land-market distortions on agricultural productivity. We develop a model of heterogeneous farms and distorted land markets, featuring (i) state-level barriers to land-market participation and (ii) idiosyncratic (farm-level) distortions to farm size. We separately identify and estimate the two sources of land-market distortions in each state. We find ...
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作者：Hajdini, Ina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：I consider a New Keynesian framework where agents combine mis-specified forecasts and myopia to form expectations. This combination is consistent with inflation forecasts'late overshooting, under-reaction to forecast revisions, and overreaction to current inflation. Estimating the general equilibrium model on macroeconomic data shows that: (i) data favor combining autoregressive mis-specified forecasting rules with myopia over other alternatives; (ii) learning of mis-specified rules improves m...
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作者：Giannoulakis, Stelios; Sakellaris, Plutarchos
作者单位：Athens University of Economics & Business
摘要：During the Greek Depression, which saw a 22 percent decline in output, young firms and small firms experienced significantly steeper declines in sales growth compared to their mature and larger counterparts. This disparity was largely driven by adverse demand shocks and was further intensified by financing constraints (FCs), with a significant interaction between these two factors amplifying the impact. Firm-level heterogeneity played a critical role in shaping macroeconomic outcomes, with the...
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作者：Feenstra, Robert C.; Macedoni, Luca; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy )
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Milan; Peking University
摘要：We examine the relationship between large firms and the rising profit share in a model that features oligopolistic competition and consumer heterogeneity. Conditional on the sales distribution, consumer heterogeneity increases firm-level markups and the profit share. Using NielsenIQ data on purchases at the household-barcode level, we quantify the role of consumer heterogeneity, finding that the average markup and the profit share are 20 and 6.4 percentage points larger than predicted by a rep...
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作者：Graham, James; McDowall, Robert A.
作者单位：University of Sydney; Australian National University
摘要：We study consumption spending responses to predictable income using household-level data from a US financial institution. Even for households with large liquid asset balances, we find no spending in anticipation of income receipt, substantial spending following receipt, and significant front-loading with respect to date of receipt. To rationalize these findings, we develop a tractable model of mental accounts where consumption choices are partitioned across current income and current assets. O...
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作者：Moschini, Emily G.; Raveendranathan, Gajendran; Xu, Ming
作者单位：McMaster University; Queens University - Canada
摘要：In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to...
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作者：Cormun, Vito; De Leo, Pierre
作者单位：Santa Clara University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We separately identify domestic and external sources of exchange rate fluctuations in a large sample of small open economies (SOEs). We find that external shocks lead to large and predictable deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP), while domestic shocks do not. Additionally, external shocks are linked to fluctuations in global risk aversion and US macroeconomic aggregates. We present an SOE model that rationalizes these facts. In the model, global risk aversion shocks drive exchange r...
