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作者：Bernard, Tanguy; Dercon, Stefan; Orkin, Kate; Schinaia, Giulio; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
作者单位：Universite de Bordeaux; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); INRAE; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Chicago; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
摘要：Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomized controlled trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention that aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations, and through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from simila...
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作者：Chetty, Raj; Dobbie, Will; Goldman, Benjamin; Porter, Sonya R.; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：Harvard University; Cornell University
摘要：We show that intergenerational mobility changed rapidly by race and class in recent decades in the United States and study the causal mechanisms underlying those changes. Between the 1978 and 1992 birth cohorts, earnings increased for white children from high-income families relative to white children from low-income families, increasing earnings gaps by parental income (class) by 30%. Earnings increased for Black children at all parental income levels, reducing white-Black earnings gaps for c...
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作者：Andersen, Asger Lau; Huber, Kilian; Johannesen, Niels; Straub, Ludwig; Vestergaard, Emil Toft
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Danish Finance Institute; University of Copenhagen; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Harvard University
摘要：We develop a system of disaggregated economic accounts. The system breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between consistently defined groups of consumers (consumer cells), groups of producers (producer cells), the government, and the rest of the world. We disaggregate the full circular flow of money, including consumer spending, labor compensation, firm profits, intermediates trade, foreign trade, and government transactions, while satisfying all national accounting id...
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作者：Weidmann, Ben; Vecci, Joseph; Said, Farah; Bhalotra, Sonia; Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Nyshadham, Anant; Tamayo, Jorge; Deming, David
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Gothenburg; Lahore University of Management Sciences; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California San Diego; University of Michigan System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan; Harvard University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We introduce and validate a novel approach to identifying good managers. In a preregistered lab experiment, we causally identify managerial contributions by randomly assigning managers to teams and controlling for individual skill. We find that manager contributions are crucial for team success, and that people who self-select into management roles perform worse than randomly assigned managers. Managerial performance is strongly predicted by economic decision-making skill but not by demographi...
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作者：Gehring, Kai; Schaudt, Paul
作者单位：University of Bern; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; KU Leuven
摘要：We provide quasi-experimental evidence of how an innovative market-based solution using remote-sensing technology can mitigate drought-induced conflict. Droughts are a major driver of conflict in Africa, particularly between transhumant pastoralists and sedentary farmers. Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI), a program piloted in Kenya, provides automated, preemptive payouts to pastoralists affected by droughts. Combining variation in rainfall and the staggered rollout of IBLI in Kenya over ...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien; Kanzig, Diego R.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1 degrees C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth mod...
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作者：Nguyen, Kieu-Trang
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This article shows that a CEO's trust enhances innovation within a firm, providing a novel micro-foundation for the well-known trust-growth relationship. I build a new matched CEO-firm-patent data set covering 5,753 CEOs in 3,598 U.S. public firms and 700,000 patents during 2000-2011. I exploit variation in generalized trust across CEO ethnic origins, inferred from their last names using deanonymized historical censuses. Following CEO turnovers, a one standard deviation increase in a CEO's gen...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Hurst, Erik
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages-two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly match...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：This article studies the effects of automation in a task-based economy in which some jobs pay workers rents-wages above workers' outside options. We show that automation targets high-rent tasks, dissipating rents, amplifying wage losses, and reducing within-group wage dispersion in exposed groups. This form of rent dissipation is inefficient and offsets the productivity gains from automation. Using U.S. data from 1980 to 2016, we find evidence of sizable rent dissipation and reduced within-gro...
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作者：Arellano, Cristina; Bai, Yan; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：This article develops a New Keynesian model with sovereign default risk. Inflation is set by forward-looking firms, monetary policy is an interest rate rule, and the fiscal government borrows externally, long-term, with an option to default. In this framework, default risk creates inflation pressures through an expectations channel, and tight monetary policy disincentivizes fiscal overborrowing. The model sheds light on temporary inflation events in emerging-market data: short-lived spikes in ...
