How Do You Identify a Good Manager?*
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Weidmann, Ben; Vecci, Joseph; Said, Farah; Bhalotra, Sonia; Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Nyshadham, Anant; Tamayo, Jorge; Deming, David
署名单位：
University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Gothenburg; Lahore University of Management Sciences; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California San Diego; University of Michigan System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan; Harvard University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
刊物名称：
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0033-5533
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjag004
发表日期：
2026
关键词：
high wage workers
SITUATIONAL JUDGMENT
POLITICAL SKILL
weakest-link
leadership
personality
GENDER
intelligence
performance
validation
摘要：
We introduce and validate a novel approach to identifying good managers. In a preregistered lab experiment, we causally identify managerial contributions by randomly assigning managers to teams and controlling for individual skill. We find that manager contributions are crucial for team success, and that people who self-select into management roles perform worse than randomly assigned managers. Managerial performance is strongly predicted by economic decision-making skill but not by demographic characteristics. Two validation studies support our experimental results. Participants who succeed in the lab receive more real-world promotions and, in a separate study of retail store managers, skill measures strongly predict store sales. A one standard deviation increase in manager quality increases annual per store sales by US$4.1 million (25% increase). Selecting managers on skills rather than demographic characteristics or the desire to lead could substantially improve organizational performance.