Insuring Peace: Index-Based Livestock Insurance, Droughts, and Conflict*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gehring, Kai; Schaudt, Paul
• 署名单位: University of Bern; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; KU Leuven
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjag005
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: civil conflict; Cash transfers; shocks; IMPACT; aid

摘要

We provide quasi-experimental evidence of how an innovative market-based solution using remote-sensing technology can mitigate drought-induced conflict. Droughts are a major driver of conflict in Africa, particularly between transhumant pastoralists and sedentary farmers. Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI), a program piloted in Kenya, provides automated, preemptive payouts to pastoralists affected by droughts. Combining variation in rainfall and the staggered rollout of IBLI in Kenya over 2000-2020, we find that IBLI strongly reduces drought-induced conflict. Key mechanisms include a reduction in herd sizes, as well as income smoothing and asset price stabilization, contributing to an overall reduced migratory pressure for pastoralists. Our study suggests that market-based solutions are a scalable, cost-effective pathway to mitigate conflict, complementing political solutions such as power-sharing agreements and institutional reforms.