The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global Versus Local Temperature*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bilal, Adrien; Kanzig, Diego R.
• 署名单位: Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjag011
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: rare disasters; emissions; weather

摘要

This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1 degrees C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a social cost of carbon in excess of $1,200 per ton. These impacts suggest that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.