-
作者：Gabriel, Ricardo Duque; Klein, Mathias; Pessoa, Ana Sofia
作者单位：University of Bonn; National Bureau of Economic Research; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：a novel regional database covering over 200 elections in several European countries, this article provides new empirical evidence on the political consequences of fiscal consolidations. To identify exogenous reductions in regional public spending, we use a Bartik-type instrument that combines regional sensitivities to changes in national government expenditures with narrative national consolidation episodes. Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties' vote share, l...
-
作者：Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle; Parenti, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Paris School of Economics; INRAE; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study how stickiness in business relationships influences the trade impact of aggregate uncertainty. To begin, we construct a product-level index of relationship stickiness using firm-to-firm relationship duration data. We then demonstrate how relationship stickiness shapes trade dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. We find that episodes of uncertainty lead to a decline in the overall establishment of new business relationships, with the impact varying depending on the level of stick...
-
作者：Bryan, Kevin A.; Guzman, Jorge
作者单位：University of Toronto; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We track the movement of high-potential startups using cross-state business registrations and estimate the utility of cities to moving startups using a revealed preference approach. 6.6% of these startups move across state borders during their first five years. Startup hubs like Silicon Valley and Boston tend to lose startups to other cities. Our findings show that startups prefer traditional hubs when they move soon after being founded, but later prefer cities with lower taxes. This pattern i...
-
作者：Solomon, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper studies imperfectly perceived private information in insurance markets when contracts endogenously respond. Equilibrium contracts, pooling, and welfare depend on the joint distribution of risk and misperception. In the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I show that misperceptions typically covary with (medical, long-term care, disability, and mortality) risk type: high types underperceive their risk and low types overperceive. I develop a general model and algorithm to estimate the ...
-
作者：Child, Travers B.; Wright, Austin L.; Xiao, Yun
作者单位：Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU); China Europe International Business School; University of Chicago; University of Gothenburg
摘要：Aid fragmentation-the simultaneous operation of multiple development agencies in one setting-has long raised concerns about coordination challenges and opportunities for corruption. Leveraging unique data on project delivery in Afghanistan, we present the first microlevel empirical analysis of aid fragmentation. We find that aid delivered by a single donor can significantly reduce corruption. Projects delivered under conditions of aid fragmentation, by contrast, can facilitate corruption. We f...
-
作者：Ben-David, Itzhak; Towbin, Pascal; Weber, Sebastian
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Swiss National Bank (SNB); International Monetary Fund
摘要：We propose a method to detect shifts in housing price expecta tions by observing excess capacity. Anticipated future price hikes lead to increased current supply, resulting in temporary vacancies. Using a struc tural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, we analyze the impact of these expectations on the U.S. housing market. Our findings indicate that price expectation shocks primarily drove the 1996-2006 boom, espe cially in the Sand States. At the boom's peak, these shocks stemmed fr...
-
作者：Berkes, Enrico; Nencka, Peter
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore County; University System of Ohio; Miami University
摘要：Between 1883 and 1919, Andrew Carnegie funded the construction of more than 1,500 public libraries across the United States, reducing the costs of accessing knowledge for millions. We study the effect of these libraries on innovation. Patenting in recipient places increased on average by 10%-12% in the 20 years following library construction relative to a novel control group of cities that applied for but did not build libraries. We show that access to scientific knowledge and increased collab...
-
作者：Moore, Timothy J.; Schnepel, Kevin T.
作者单位：Monash University; Simon Fraser University
摘要：In 2001, a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, whereas persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. O...
-
作者：Gilraine, Michael; McCarthy, Odhrain
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; New York University
摘要：We show that teachers' value added (VA) depends on the VA of the teachers who preceded them. To do so, we use administrative data from North Carolina and find that a one-standard deviation increase in last grade's mean teacher VA causes a 0.08 sigma decrease in teacher VA. Controlling for prior teacher assignment eliminates this bias. Under a benchmark policy that releases teachers in the bottom 5% of the VA distribution, 32% of teachers are incorrectly released using traditional techniques. O...
-
作者：Lakdawala, Aeimit; Moreland, Timothy
作者单位：Wake Forest University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Greensboro
