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作者：Besley, Timothy; Fetzer, Thiemo; Mueller, Hannes
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Warwick; University of Bonn; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：This paper estimates the size of the media multiplier, an easily generalizable model-based measure of how far media coverage magnifies the economic response to shocks. We combine monthly aggregated and anonymized credit card activity data from 114 card-issuing countries in 5 destination countries with a large corpus of news coverage in issuing countries reporting on violent events in the destinations. To define and quantify the media multiplier, we estimate a model in which latent beliefs, sha...
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作者：Buser, Thomas; Niederle, Muriel; Oosterbeek, Hessel
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess the predictive power of two measures of competitiveness for education and labor market outcomes using a large, representative survey panel. The first is incentivized and is an online adaptation of the laboratory-based Niederle-Vesterlund measure. The second is an unincentivized survey question eliciting general competitiveness. Both measures are strong predictors of income, occupation, level of education, and field of study. The predictive power of the new unincentivized measure is r...
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作者：Snyder, Christopher M.; Zhuo, Ran
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Economics papers increasingly report balance, pretrend, placebo, and other sniff tests, rejection of which is bad news for authors, undermining the credibility of their main results. We derive nonparametric bounds on the latent proportion of significant sniff tests removed by the publication process (whether by p-hacking or relegation to the file drawer) and the proportion whose significance was due to true misspecification, not bad luck. Using a hand-collected sample of nearly 30,000 sniff te...
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作者：Baron, E. Jason; Hyman, Joshua; Vasquez, Brittany
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Amherst College; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper asks whether increasing public school funding can be an effective long-run crime-prevention strategy in the United States. Specifically, we examine the effect of increases in funding early in children's lives on the likelihood that they are arrested as adults. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in public school funding, leveraging two natural experiments in Michigan and a novel administrative data set linking the universe of Michigan public school students to adult criminal jus...
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作者：Jiang, Liang; Linton, Oliver B.; Tang, Haihan; Zhang, Yichong
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Cambridge; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its furth...
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作者：Caliendo, Marco; Kunn, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert
作者单位：University of Potsdam; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Maastricht University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We investigate the causal effects of financial incentives supporting geographical mobility among unemployed workers on their job search behavior and labor market outcomes. Exploiting regional variation in the promotion of mobility programs along administrative borders of German employment agency districts, we show that promoting mobility-as intended-causes job seekers to increase their search radius, apply for, and accept distant jobs. At the same time, local job search is reduced with adverse...
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作者：Madeira, Carlos; Madeira, Joao; Monteiro, Paulo Santos
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Instituto Universitario de Lisboa; Instituto Universitario de Lisboa; University of York - UK
摘要：We investigate how dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is affected by structural macroeconomic shocks obtained using a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We find that dissent is less (more) frequent when demand (supply) shocks are the predominant source of inflation fluctuations. In addition, supply shocks are found to raise private sector forecasting uncertainty about the path of interest rates. Since supply shocks impose a tradeoff between inflation an...
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作者：Angrist, Noam; Winseck, Kevin; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Zivin, Joshua Graff
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Addressing climate change requires individual behavior change and voter support for pro-climate policies, yet surprisingly little is known about how to achieve these outcomes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on pro-climate outcomes using new compulsory schooling law data across 20 European countries. We analyze effects on pro-climate beliefs and behaviors, as well as novel data on policy preferences and voting for green parties. Results show that a year of edu...
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作者：Aneja, Abhay; Reshef, Oren; Subramani, Gauri
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL); Lehigh University
摘要：Women are underrepresented in patenting. In this study, we consider differential responsiveness to rejection as a contributor to the gender gap in invention. Leveraging the prosecution histories of almost one million U.S. patent applications and the quasirandom assignment of applications to examiners, we show that women are 3.6-6.9 percentage points less likely to continue in the application process following an early-stage rejection. Conditional on applying for a patent, male-female dispariti...
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作者：Healy, Olivia J.; Heissel, Jennifer A.
作者单位：United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School
摘要：This paper explores whether and why a maternal child penalty to earnings would emerge even without changes in employment and hours worked. Using a matched event study design, we trace monthly changes in determinants of wages (job performance, human capital accumulation, and promotions). Data come from a usefully unusual setting with required multiyear employment and detailed personnel data: the U.S. Marine Corps. Mothers' job performance initially declines, and gaps in promotion grow through 2...
