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作者：Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Muir, Tyler
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We analyze the behavior of credit and output in financial crises using data on credit spreads and credit growth. Crises are marked by a sharp rise in credit spreads, signaling sudden shifts in expectations. The severity of a crisis can be predicted by the extent of credit losses (spread increases) and financial sector fragility (precrisis credit growth). This interaction is a key feature of crises. Postcrisis recessions are typically severe and prolonged. Notably, precrisis spreads tend to dro...
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作者：Hoffmann, Florian; Vladimirov, Vladimir
作者单位：University of Amsterdam
摘要：We investigate a seller's strategic choice between optimally structured negotiations with fewer bidders and an auction with more competing bidders when payments can have a contingent component, as is common in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), patent licensing, and employee compensation. The key factor favoring negotiations is that it allows the seller to set her preferred payment structure-that is, the revenue-maximizing mix of cash and contingent pay; reserve prices are of secondary importance...
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作者：Kaplan, Steven N.
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Ke, Da
作者单位：University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
摘要：This paper highlights the simple fact that households typically consist of multiple members who may hold divergent views, a fact that existing approaches to measuring and modeling household macroeconomic expectations largely abstract from. Using unique data on the macroeconomic expectations of both spouses, I document substantial intrahousehold disagreement about inflation, economic recessions, and stock market returns. I further show that household asset allocation decisions are shaped by dis...
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作者：Luo, Dan
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：An entrepreneur makes offers to multiple investors to fund a project that requires a minimum investment. Concerned about other investors' decisions, each investor strategically communicates information about the project to others. When investors have conflicts of interest, those with contractually stronger incentives to invest attempt to persuade others to invest. Depending on the project's ex ante quality, the entrepreneur may promise investors different returns to create conflicts of interes...
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作者：Catherine, Sylvain; Miller, Max; Sarin, Natasha
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University; Yale University
摘要：Recent influential work finds large increases in inequality in the United States based on measures of wealth concentration that notably exclude the value of social insurance programs. This paper shows that top wealth shares have not changed much over the last three decades when Social Security is properly accounted for. This is because Social Security wealth increased substantially from $7.2 trillion in 1989 to $40.6 trillion in 2019 and now represents nearly 50% of the wealth of the bottom 90...
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作者：Bhutta, Neil; Hizmo, Aurel; Ringo, Daniel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using confidential data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have lower credit scores and higher leverage, and are less likely to receive algorithmic approval from race-blind automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant-risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, exploiting the AUS data, we show there are risk factors we do not observe, and these factors at least partially e...
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作者：Guenzel, Marius
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Sunk costs are unrecoverable costs that should not affect decision making. I provide evidence that firms systematically fail to ignore sunk costs and that this leads to significant investment distortions. In fixed-exchange-ratio stock mergers, aggregate market fluctuations after parties enter into a binding merger agreement induce plausibly exogenous variation in the final acquisition cost. These quasi-random cost shocks strongly predict firms' commitment to an acquired business following deal...
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作者：Wang, Olivier
作者单位：New York University
摘要：I study how the secular decline in interest rates affects banks' intermediation spreads and credit supply. Following a permanent decrease in rates, bank lending may rise initially but contracts in the long run. As lower rates compress deposit spreads even well above the zero lower bound, banks' retained earnings, equity, and lending fall until loan spreads have risen enough to offset the reduction in deposit spreads. A higher inflation target can support bank lending at the cost of higher liqu...
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作者：Grullon, Gustavo; Ikenberry, David L.
作者单位：Rice University
摘要：Theory posits that when managers anticipate excess capacity, average q becomes a biased estimator of marginal q as the potential for underutilizing new capital reduces the marginal benefit of investing. After correcting for this source of measurement error, the explanatory power of Tobin's q substantially improves in time-series and cross-sectional regressions as well as in out-of-sample tests. These findings, together with a secular erosion in capacity utilization, help explain why corporate ...
