Intrahousehold Disagreement about Macroeconomic Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ke, Da
• 署名单位: University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13437
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: portfolio choice; self-efficacy; inflation; RISK; returns; GENDER; overconfidence; Heterogeneity; preferences; babies

摘要

This paper highlights the simple fact that households typically consist of multiple members who may hold divergent views, a fact that existing approaches to measuring and modeling household macroeconomic expectations largely abstract from. Using unique data on the macroeconomic expectations of both spouses, I document substantial intrahousehold disagreement about inflation, economic recessions, and stock market returns. I further show that household asset allocation decisions are shaped by disagreement between spouses about future stock returns, and a preregistered randomized survey experiment confirms the causal impact of such disagreement on portfolio choice.