Excess Capacity, Marginal q, and Corporate Investment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Grullon, Gustavo; Ikenberry, David L.
• 署名单位: Rice University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13439
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1533-1592
• 关键词: Financial constraints; measurement error; GROWTH OPTIONS; stock-market; unemployment; liquidity; frictions; POLICY; COSTS

摘要

Theory posits that when managers anticipate excess capacity, average q becomes a biased estimator of marginal q as the potential for underutilizing new capital reduces the marginal benefit of investing. After correcting for this source of measurement error, the explanatory power of Tobin's q substantially improves in time-series and cross-sectional regressions as well as in out-of-sample tests. These findings, together with a secular erosion in capacity utilization, help explain why corporate investment rates have been declining for decades despite average q increasing significantly. Our analysis indicates that economic rigidities have contributed to the persistent erosion in capacity utilization.