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作者：Cipollone, Piero; Rosolia, Alfonso
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
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作者：DellaVigna, Stefano; Pollet, Joshua A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：How do investors respond to predictable shifts in profitability? We consider how demographic shifts affect profits and returns across industries. Cohort size fluctuations produce forecastable demand changes for age-sensitive sectors, such as toys, bicycles, beer, life insurance, and nursing homes. These demand changes are predictable once a specific cohort is born. We use lagged consumption and demographic data to forecast future consumption demand growth induced by changes in age structure. W...
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作者：Khan, Aubhik; Thomas, Julia K.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow (S, s) inventory policies. Calibrated to postwar US data, the model reproduces two-thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment. Moreover, it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment, greater volatility in production than sales, and a countercyclical inventory-to-sales ratio. Our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories, including the widely held bel...
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作者：Maggi, Giovanni; Rodriguez-Clare, Andris
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present a model where trade agreements are motivated by the desire of governments to commit vis-a-vis domestic lobbies, in addition to standard terms-of-trade externalities. The model predicts that trade liberalization is deeper when capital is more mobile across sectors, and when governments are more politically motivated (provided domestic-commitment motives are strong enough). The model also provides a new rationale for the use of tariff ceilings. In a fully dynamic specification of the ...
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作者：Gelan, Abera; Fealing, Kaye Husbands; Peoples, James
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee; Williams College; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
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作者：Hsu, Shih-Hsun; Huang, Chen-Ying; Tang, Cheng-Tao
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Brown University
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作者：Shiue, Carol H.; Keller, Wolfgang
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Why did Western Europe industrialize first? An influential view holds that its exceptionally well-functioning markets supported with a certain set of institutions provided the incentives to make investments needed to industrialize. This paper examines this hypothesis by comparing the actual performance of markets in terms of market integration in Western Europe and China, two regions that were relatively advanced in the preindustrial period, but would start to industrialize about 150 years apa...
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作者：Grubb, Farley
作者单位：University of Delaware; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Graziosi, Gregoire Rota
作者单位：Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
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作者：Smets, Frank; Wouters, Rafael
作者单位：European Central Bank; Ghent University; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macroeconomic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model, we address a nu...
