Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Smets, Frank; Wouters, Rafael
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Ghent University; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.3.586
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 586-606
• 关键词: aggregate fluctuations; technology shocks; monetary-policy

摘要

Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macroeconomic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model, we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the Great Moderation?