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作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Strack, Philipp; Strzalecki, Tomasz
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary decisions as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant cost per unit time for gathering information. We show that choices are more likely to be correct when the agent chooses to decide quickly, provided the agent's prior beliefs are correct. This better matches the observed correlation between decision time and choic...
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作者：Dubois, Pierre; Lasio, Laura
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; McGill University; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of pharmaceutical price regulation on demand and on manufacturers' price-setting behavior in France. We estimate price-cost margins in a regulated market with price constraints and infer whether these constraints are binding, exploiting cost restrictions across drugs, which come from observing the same drugs in potentially price-constrained markets (France) and in markets where prices are unregulated (United States and Germany). Our coun...
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作者：Shapiro, Joseph S.; Walker, Reed
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from US manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest...
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作者：Jensen, Robert; Miller, Nolan H.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：In many developing countries, the average firm is small, does not grow, and has low productivity. Lack of market integration and limited information on non-local products often leave consumers unaware of the prices and quality of non-local firms. They therefore mostly buy locally, limiting firms' potential market size (and competition). We explore this hypothesis using a natural experiment in the Kerala boat-building industry. As consumers learn more about non-local builders, high-quality buil...
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作者：Casaburi, Lorenzo; Willis, Jack
作者单位：University of Zurich; Columbia University
摘要：The gains from insurance arise from the transfer of income across states. Yet, by requiring that the premium be paid up front, standard insurance products also transfer income across time. We show that this intertemporal transfer can help explain low insurance demand, especially among the poor, and in a randomized control trial in Kenya we test a crop insurance product which removes it. The product is interlinked with a contract farming scheme: as with other inputs, the buyer of the crop offer...
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作者：Hamilton, Barton H.; Jungheim, Emily; McManus, Brian; Pantano, Juan
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Washington University (WUSTL); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：We study public policies designed to improve access and reduce costs for in vitro fertilization (IVF). High out-of-pocket prices can deter potential patients from IVF, while active patients have an incentive to risk costly high-order pregnancies to improve their odds of treatment success. We analyze IVF's rich choice structure by estimating a dynamic model of patients' choices within and across treatments. Policy simulations show that insurance mandates for treatment or hard limits on treatmen...
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作者：Choi, Albert H.; Spier, Kathryn E.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Harvard University
摘要：Before filing suit, a plaintiff can take a financial position in a defendant firm. A short position benefits the plaintiff by transforming a negative expected-value claim into a positive expected-value one and by enhancing the claim's settlement value. If the capital market is less than strong-form efficient, the plaintiff also benefits directly from the decline in the defendant's stock price. When the defendant is privately informed about the case's merits, bargaining failures can arise. Whil...
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作者：Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.
作者单位：Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets, rather than domestic or international capital markets, account for the bulk of these flows....
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作者：Chen, Kaiji; Ren, Jue; Zha, Tao
作者单位：Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Texas Christian University; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study how monetary policy in China influences banks' shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009-2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the ex...
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作者：Hastings, Justine; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use a novel retail panel with detailed transaction records to study the effect of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on household spending. We use administrative data to motivate three approaches to causal inference. The marginal propensity to consume SNAP-eligible food (MPCF) out of SNAP benefits is 0.5 to 0.6. The MPCF out of cash is much smaller. These patterns obtain even for households for whom SNAP benefits are economically equivalent to cash because their benefits a...
