Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.
• 署名单位: Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151510
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 3541-3582
• 关键词: business cycles; debt; countries; GROWTH; RISK; allocation; puzzles; savings; taxes; TRADE

摘要

After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets, rather than domestic or international capital markets, account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium labor supply explain two-thirds of observed flows, while improvement in these distortions over time accounts for much of Asia's rapid growth.