-
作者：Colonnelli, Emanuele; Prem, Mounu; Teso, Edoardo
作者单位：University of Chicago; Universidad del Rosario; Northwestern University
摘要：In all modern bureaucracies, politicians retain some discretion in public employment decisions, which may lead to frictions in the selection process if political connections substitute for individual competence. Relying on detailed matched employer-employee data on the universe of public employees in Brazil over 1997-2014, and on a regression discontinuity design in close electoral races, we establish three main findings. First, political connections are a key and quantitatively large determin...
-
作者：Lachowska, Marta; Mas, Alexandre; Woodbury, Stephen A.
作者单位：W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Michigan State University; W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
摘要：We estimate the magnitudes of reduced earnings, work hours, and wage rates of workers displaced during the Great Recession using linked employer-employee panel data from Washington state. Displaced workers' earnings losses occurred mainly because hourly wage rates dropped at the time of displacement and recovered sluggishly. Lost employer-specific premiums explain only 17 percent of these losses. Fully 70 percent of displaced workers moved to employers paying the same or higher wage premiums t...
-
作者：Levine, David K.; Mattozzi, Andrea
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：We introduce a model where social norms of voting participation are strategically chosen by competing political parties and determine voters' turnout. Social norms must be enforced through costly peer monitoring and punishment. When the cost of enforcement of social norms is low, the larger party is always advantaged. Otherwise, in the spirit of Olson (1965), the smaller party may be advantaged. Our model shares features of the ethical voter model and it delivers novel and empirically relevant...
-
作者：Jones, John Bailey; Pratap, Sangeeta
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); City University of New York (CUNY) System
摘要：Using a rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence on entrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facing uninsured risks and financial constraints. Fanners derive nonpecuniary benefits from operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimum distance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financial factors and nonpecuniary benefits are of first-order importance. Collateral constraints and liquidity rest...
-
作者：Bernanke, Ben S.
作者单位：Brookings Institution
摘要：To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound on-short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other-advanced-economy central banks have deployed new policy tools. This lecture reviews what we know about the new monetary tools, focusing on quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance, the principal new tools used by the Fed. I argue that the new tools have proven effective at easing financial conditions when policy rates are co...
-
作者：Bergquist, Lauren Falcao; Dinerstein, Michael
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Chicago
摘要：African agricultural markets are characterized by low farmer revenues and high consumer food prices. Many have worried that this wedge is partially driven by imperfect competition among intermediaries. This paper provides experimental evidence from Kenya on intermediary market structure. Randomized cost shocks and demand subsidies are used to identify a structural model of market competition. Estimates reveal that traders act consistently with joint profit maximization and earn median markups ...
-
作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Ma, Yueran; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning mode...
-
作者：Blundell, Wesley; Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Langer, Ashley
作者单位：Washington State University; University of Arizona
摘要：The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a dynamic approach to enforcing air pollution regulations, with repeat offenders subject to high fines and designation as high priority violators (HPV). We estimate the value of dynamic enforcement by developing and estimating a dynamic model of a plant and regulator, where plants decide when to invest in pollution abatement technologies. We use a fixed grid approach to estimate random coefficient specifications. Investment, fines, and HPV desi...
-
作者：Lise, Jeremy; Postel-Vinay, Fabien
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We construct a structural model of on-the-job search in which workers differ in skills along several dimensions and sort themselves into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those same dimensions. Skills are accumulated when used, and depreciate when not used. We estimate the model combining data from O*NET with the NLSY79. We use the model to shed light on the origins and costs of mismatch along heterogeneous skill dimensions. We highlight the deficiencies of relying on a unidimen...
-
作者：Favilukis, Jack; Lin, Xiaoji; Zhao, Xiaofei
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Georgetown University
摘要：We show that labor market frictions are first-order for understanding credit markets. Wage growth and labor share forecast aggregate credit spreads and debt growth as well as or better than alternative predictors. They also predict credit risk and debt growth in a cross section of international firms. Finally, high labor share firms choose lower financial leverage. A model with labor market frictions and risky long-term debt can explain these findings, and produce large credit spreads despite ...
