Business-Cycle Anatomy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Angeletos, George-Marios; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Bern
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer20181174
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 3030-3070
• 关键词: aggregate demand; inflation; time; news; shocks

摘要

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role; technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.