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作者：Benhabib, Jess; Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi
作者单位：New York University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
摘要：We formalize the Keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations. When production decisions must be made under imperfect information about demand, optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without persistent informational frictions, externalities, nonconvexities, or strategic complementarities in production. The models we consider ...
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作者：Elliott, Graham; Mueller, Ulrich K.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Princeton University
摘要：This paper considers nonstandard hypothesis testing problems that involve a nuisance parameter. We establish an upper bound on the weighted average power of all valid tests, and develop a numerical algorithm that determines a feasible test with power close to the bound. The approach is illustrated in six applications: inference about a linear regression coefficient when the sign of a control coefficient is known; small sample inference about the difference in means from two independent Gaussia...
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作者：Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Heino Bohn; Rahbek, Anders
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Copenhagen
摘要：It is well known that the finite-sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co-integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett-type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic (2) tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis i...
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作者：Aidt, Toke S.; Franck, Raphael
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Bar Ilan University; Brown University
摘要：We examine the link between the threat of violence and democratization in the context of the Great Reform Act passed by the British Parliament in 1832. We geo-reference the so-called Swing riots, which occurred between the 1830 and 1831 parliamentary elections, and compute the number of these riots that happened within a 10 km radius of the 244 English constituencies. Our empirical analysis relates this constituency-specific measure of the threat perceptions held by the 344,000 voters in the U...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Debopam
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：We consider empirical measurement of equivalent variation (EV) and compensating variation (CV) resulting from price change of a discrete good using individual-level data when there is unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. We show that for binary and unordered multinomial choice, the marginal distributions of EV and CV can be expressed as simple closed-form functionals of conditional choice probabilities under essentially unrestricted preference distributions. These results hold even when th...
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作者：Bigoni, Maria; Casari, Marco; Skrzypacz, Andrzej; Spagnolo, Giancarlo
作者单位：University of Bologna; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Stanford University; University of Rome Tor Vergata; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study social dilemmas in (quasi-) continuous-time experiments, comparing games with different durations and termination rules. We discover a stark qualitative contrast in behavior in continuous time as compared to previously studied behavior in discrete-time games: cooperation is easier to achieve and sustain with deterministic horizons than with stochastic ones, and end-game effects emerge, but subjects postpone them with experience. Analysis of individual strategies provides a basis for a...
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作者：Renner, Philipp; Schmedders, Karl
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI)
摘要：This paper presents a new method for the analysis of moral hazard principal-agent problems. The new approach avoids the stringent assumptions on the distribution of outcomes made by the classical first-order approach and instead only requires the agent's expected utility to be a rational function of the action. This assumption allows for a reformulation of the agent's utility maximization problem as an equivalent system of equations and inequalities. This reformulation in turn transforms the p...
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作者：Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone; Dillenberger, David; Ortoleva, Pietro
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; University of Pennsylvania; Columbia University
摘要：Many violations of the independence axiom of expected utility can be traced to subjects' attraction to risk-free prospects. The key axiom in this paper, negative certainty independence ([Dillenberger, 2010]), formalizes this tendency. Our main result is a utility representation of all preferences over monetary lotteries that satisfy negative certainty independence together with basic rationality postulates. Such preferences can be represented as if the agent were unsure of how to evaluate a gi...
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作者：Francois, Patrick; Rainer, Ilia; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Is African politics characterized by concentrated power in the hands of a narrow group (ethnically determined) that then fluctuates from one extreme to another via frequent coups? Employing data on the ethnicity of cabinet ministers since independence, we show that African ruling coalitions are surprisingly large and that political power is allocated proportionally to population shares across ethnic groups. This holds true even restricting the analysis to the subsample of the most powerful min...
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作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Strzalecki, Tomasz
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We characterize a generalization of discounted logistic choice that incorporates a parameter to capture different views the agent might have about the costs and benefits of larger choice sets. The discounted logit model used in the empirical literature is the special case that displays a preference for flexibility in the sense that the agent always prefers to add additional items to a menu. Other cases display varying levels of choice aversion, where the agent prefers to remove items from a me...
