SENTIMENTS AND AGGREGATE DEMAND FLUCTUATIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Benhabib, Jess; Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi
• 署名单位: New York University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA11085
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 549-585
• 关键词: Correlated equilibrium; social value; INFORMATION; COORDINATION; crises; prices; games

摘要

We formalize the Keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations. When production decisions must be made under imperfect information about demand, optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without persistent informational frictions, externalities, nonconvexities, or strategic complementarities in production. The models we consider are deliberately simple, but could serve as benchmarks for more complicated equilibrium models with additional features.