DEMOCRATIZATION UNDER THE THREAT OF REVOLUTION: EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT REFORM ACT OF 1832

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aidt, Toke S.; Franck, Raphael
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Bar Ilan University; Brown University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA11484
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 505-547
• 关键词: Political transitions; propensity score; franchise; DEMOCRACY; INEQUALITY; england; EXTENSIONS; variables; britain; Europe

摘要

We examine the link between the threat of violence and democratization in the context of the Great Reform Act passed by the British Parliament in 1832. We geo-reference the so-called Swing riots, which occurred between the 1830 and 1831 parliamentary elections, and compute the number of these riots that happened within a 10 km radius of the 244 English constituencies. Our empirical analysis relates this constituency-specific measure of the threat perceptions held by the 344,000 voters in the Unreformed Parliament to the share of seats won in each constituency by pro-reform politicians in 1831. We find that the Swing riots induced voters to vote for pro-reform politicians after experiencing first-hand the violence of the riots.