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作者：Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Straub, Ludwig; Werning, Ivan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smal...
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作者：Baqaee, David; Farhi, Emmanuel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study supply and demand shocks in a disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-output linkages, downward nominal wage rigidities, credit-constraints, and a zero lower bound. We use the model to understand how the COVID-19 crisis, an omnibus supply and demand shock, affects output, unemployment, and inflation, and leads to the coexistence of tight and slack labor markets. We show that negative sectoral supply shocks are stagflationary, whereas negative demand shocks a...
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作者：Kong, Yunmi; Perrigne, Isabelle; Vuong, Quang
作者单位：Rice University; New York University
摘要：In this paper, we conduct a structural analysis of multi-attribute auctions of contracts with a general allocation rule when private information is multidimensional. Upon modeling bidders' contract value that accounts for their endogenous ex post actions, we nonparametrically identify bidders' private information from their bids and estimate their joint distribution. Analyzing cash-royalty auctions of Louisiana oil leases, we find government revenue worse and development rates no better than i...
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作者：Butters, R. Andrew; Sacks, Daniel W.; Seo, Boyoung
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; IU Kelley School of Business
摘要：Recent research shows prices are insensitive to local demand condiWe examine the price response to local cost shocks, including 68 excise tax changes, 76 sales tax changes, and other geographically based cost differences, using data on 35,151 retail stores in 96 multi-state chains. We find local cost shocks are passed through to local prices, with no spillovers to unaffected stores in otherwise affected chains, and at similar rates for national and local chains. Firms adjust local prices accor...
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作者：de Clippel, Geoffroy; Fanning, Jack; Rozen, Kareen
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：We study bargaining over contingent contracts in problems where private information becomes public or verifiable when the time comes to implement the agreement. We suggest a simple, two-stage game that incorporates important aspects of bargaining. We characterize equilibria in which parties always reach agreement, and study their limits as bargaining frictions vanish. Under mild regularity conditions, we show all interim-efficient limits belong to Myerson' s (1984) axiomatic solution. Furtherm...
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作者：Gerardi, Dino; Maestri, Lucas; Monzon, Ignacio
作者单位：Collegio Carlo Alberto; University of Turin; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：We study bargaining with divisibility and interdependent values. A buyer and a seller trade a divisible good. The seller is privately informed about its quality, which can be high or low. Gains from trade are positive and decreasing in quantity. The buyer makes offers over time. Divisibility introduces a new channel of competition between the buyer's present and future selves. The buyer's temptation to split the purchases of the high-quality good is detrimental to him. As bargaining frictions ...
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作者：Aryal, Gaurab; Bhuller, Manudeep; Lange, Fabian
作者单位：University of Virginia; University of Oslo; Statistics Norway; McGill University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper considers the use of instruments to identify and estimate private and social returns to education within a model of employer learning. What an instrument identifies depends on whether it is hidden from, or transparent (i.e., observed) to, the employers. A hidden instrument identifies private returns to education, and a transparent instrument identifies social returns to education. We use variation in compulsory schooling laws across noncentral and central municipalities in Norway to...
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作者：Baqaee, David; Werning, Ivan; Woodford, Michael
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Columbia University
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作者：Cabral, Marika; Cui, Can; Dworsky, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; RAND Corporation
摘要：Workers' compensation insurance, which provides no-fault coverage for work-related injuries, is mandatory in nearly all states. We use administrative data from a unique market without a coverage mandate to estimate the demand for workers' compensation insurance, leveraging regulatory premium updates for identification. We find that a 1 percent increase in premiums leads to approximately a 0.3 percent decline in coverage. Drawing upon these estimates and data on costs, we examine potential just...
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作者：Cao, Yiming; Chen, Shuo
作者单位：Boston University; Fudan University
摘要：This paper examines the effects of the abandonment of China's Grand Canal-the world's largest and oldest artificial waterway-which served as a disruption to regional trade access. Using an original dataset covering 575 counties over 262 years, we show that the canal's abandonment contributed to the social turmoil that engulfed North China in the nineteenth century. Counties along the canal experienced an additional 117 percent increase in rebelliousness after the canal's closure relative to th...
