Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Straub, Ludwig; Werning, Ivan
署名单位：
University of Chicago; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0002-8282
DOI：
10.1257/aer.20201063
发表日期：
2022
页码：
1437-1474
关键词：
摘要：
Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. Firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.
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