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作者：Yeh, Chen; Macaluso, Claudia; Hershbein, Brad
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
摘要：This paper quantifies employer market power in US manufacturing and how it has changed over time. Using administrative data, we estimate plant-level markdowns-the ratio between a plant's marginal revenue product of labor and its wage. We find most manufacturing plants operate in a monopsonistic environment, with an average markdown of 1.53, implying a worker earning only 65 cents on the marginal dollar generated. To investigate long-term trends for the entire sector, we propose a novel, theore...
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作者：Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Straub, Ludwig; Werning, Ivan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smal...
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作者：Frick, Mira; Iijima, Ryota; Ishii, Yuhta
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We formulate a model of social interactions and misinferences by agents who neglect assortativity in their society, mistakenly believing that they interact with a representative sample of the population. A key component of our approach is the interplay between this bias and agents' strategic incentives. We highlight a mechanism through which assortativity neglect, combined with strategic complementarities in agents' behavior, drives up action dispersion in society (e.g., socioeconomic disparit...
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作者：Algan, Yann; Beasley, Elizabeth; Cote, Sylvana; Park, Jungwee; Tremblay, Richard E.; Vitaro, Frank
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Universite de Montreal; Statistics Canada; University College Dublin
摘要：A childhood intervention to improve the social skills and self-control of at-risk kindergarten boys in the 1980s had positive impacts over the life course: higher trust and self-control as adolescents; increased social group membership, education, and reduced criminality as young adults; and increased marriage and employment as adults. Using administrative data, we find this intervention increased average yearly employment income by about 20 percent and decreased average yearly social transfer...
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作者：Antoniades, Alexis; Feenstra, Robert C.; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University
摘要：Many price indices must be constructed without quantity data at the elementary level. The paper shows that for some consumer goods in the United States and other countries, one can approximate expenditure shares using weights derived from the retail distribution of sellers. These weights are based on the share of outlets selling an item, or the share of outlets adjusted by the total number of items sold in each. Relative to using no weights, the paper finds that using such imputed weights subs...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Duke University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper combines a data-rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ( belief distortions) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, with all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component of their forecasts relative to what can be learned from publicly available information. Forecasts of inflation and GDP growth oscillate between optimism and p...
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作者：Guvenen, Fatih; Mataloni, Raymond J. Jr Jr; Rassier, Dylan G.; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We show how offshore profit shifting by US multinational enterprises affects several key measures of the US economy. Profits shifted out of the United States grew rapidly from the mid-1990s to 2010 and have since waned. From 1982-2016, on average,38 percent of income attributed to US direct investment abroad is reattributable to the United States. We find that adjusting for profit shifting shrinks the trade deficit, decreases the return on US foreign direct investment abroad, boosts productivi...
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作者：Schwardmann, Peter; Tripodi, Egon; van der Weele, Joel J.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; University of Essex; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Laboratory evidence shows that when people have to argue for a given position, they persuade themselves about the position's factual and moral superiority. Such self-persuasion limits the potential of communication to resolve conflict and reduce polarization. We test for this phenomenon in a field setting, at international debating competitions that randomly assign experienced and motivated debaters to argue one side of a topical motion. We find self-persuasion in factual beliefs and confidenc...
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作者：Shepard, Mark
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Health insurers increasingly compete on their networks of medical providers. Using data from Massachusetts's insurance exchange, I find substantial adverse selection against plans covering the most prestigious and expensive star hospitals. I highlight a theoretically distinct selection channel: consumers loyal to star hospitals incur high spending, conditional on their medical state, because they use these hospitals' expensive care. This implies heterogeneity in consumers' incremental costs of...
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作者：Balke, Neele; Lamadon, Thibaut
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. We develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. Risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. The model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. Firms absorb persistent worker an...
