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作者：Bernhardt, Dan; Krasa, Stefan; Shadmehr, Mehdi
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Warwick; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine
摘要：We investigate the susceptibility of democracies to demagogues, studying tensions between representatives who guard voters' long-run interests and demagogues who cater to voters' short-run desires. Parties propose consumption and investment. Voters base choices on current-period consumption and valence shocks. Younger/poorer economies and economically disadvantaged voters are attracted to the demagogue's disinvestment policies, forcing farsighted represen-tatives to mimic them. This electoral ...
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作者：Huffman, David; Raymond, Collin; Shvets, Julia
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Cornell University; University of Cambridge
摘要：A long-standing puzzle is how overconfidence can persist in settings characterized by repeated feedback. This paper studies managers who participate repeatedly in a high-powered tournament incen-tive system, learning relative performance each time. Using reduced form and structural methods we find that (i) managers make over-confident predictions about future performance; (ii) managers have overly positive memories of past performance; (iii) the two phenom-ena are linked at an individual level...
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作者：Voss, Paul; Kulms, Marius
摘要：This paper identifies an upside of the separation of ownership and control, typically the source of inefficiencies in the theory of the firm. Because insiders obtain private information by exercising control, the separation of ownership and control leads to a separation of ownership and information. We show that this separation is neces-sary for efficient trade in the market for corporate control. The anal-ysis reveals how strategic communication between inside and outside shareholders facilit...
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作者：Moon, Terry S.
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：This paper assesses the effects of capital gains taxes on investment in the Republic of Korea (hereafter, Korea), where capital gains tax rates vary at the firm level by firm size. Following a reform in 2014, firms with a tax cut increased investment by 34 log points and issued more equity by 9 cents per dollar of lagged revenue, relative to unaffected firms. Additionally, the effects were larger for firms that appeared more cash constrained or went public after the reform. Taken together, the...
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作者：Kapon, Sam
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：A regulator faces a stream of agents engaged in crimes with stochas-tic returns. The regulator designs an amnesty program, committing to a time path of punishments for criminals who report their crimes. In an optimal program, time variation in the returns from crime can generate time variation in the generosity of amnesty. I construct an optimal time path and show that it exhibits amnesty cycles. Amnesty becomes increasingly generous over time until it hits a bound, after which the cycle reset...
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作者：Boissel, Charles; Matray, Adrien
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper investigates the 2013 threefold increase in the French div-idend tax rate. Using administrative data covering the universe of firms from 2008 to 2017 and a quasi-experimental setting, we find that firms swiftly cut dividend payments and used this tax-induced increase in liquidity to invest more. Heterogeneity analyses show that firms with high demand and returns on capital responded most while no group of firms cut their investment. Our results reject models in which higher dividend...
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作者：Loertscher, Simon; Marx, Leslie M.
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Duke University
摘要：We provide an incomplete information bargaining framework that captures the effects of differential bargaining power in markets with multiple buyers and multiple suppliers. The market is modeled as a mechanism that maximizes the expected weighted welfare of the firms, subject to the constraints of incentive compatibility, individual rationality, and no deficit. We show that, in this model, there is no basis for the presumption that vertical integration increases equally weighted social surplus...
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作者：Bai, Y. U. E. H. A. O.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：In randomized controlled trials, treatment is often assigned by strat-ified randomization. I show that among all stratified randomiza-tion schemes that treat all units with probability one half, a certain matched-pair design achieves the maximum statistical precision for estimating the average treatment effect. In an important special case, the optimal design pairs units according to the baseline outcome. In a simulation study based on datasets from ten randomized controlled trials, this desig...
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作者：Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Increases in the minimum wage can substantially reduce earnings inequality. To demonstrate this, we combine administrative and sur-vey data with an equilibrium model of the Brazilian labor market. We find that a 128 percent increase in the real minimum wage in Brazil between 1996 and 2018 had far-reaching spillover effects on wages higher up in the distribution. The increased minimum wage accounts for 45 percent of a large fall in earnings inequality over this period. At the same time, the eff...
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作者：Montero, Eduardo; Yang, Dean
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Does variation in how religious festivals are celebrated have eco-nomic consequences? We study the economic impacts of the timing of Catholic patron saint day festivals in Mexico. For causal iden-tification, we exploit cross-locality variation in festival dates and in the timing of agricultural seasons. We estimate the impact of agriculturally coinciding festivals (those coinciding with peak planting or harvest months) on long-run economic development of localities. Agriculturally coinciding ...
