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作者：Brunnermeier, Markus; Correia, Sergio; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil; Zimmermann, Tom
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Cologne
摘要：This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro-and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show inflation led to a large reduction in real debt burdens and bankruptcies. Firms with higher nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation experienced a larger decline in interest expenses, a relative increase in their equity values, and higher employment during the inflation. T...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：How quickly does a fiat money become valueless? I study the speculative hyperinflation equilibria of continuous-time economies with decentralized markets where money is essential. I establish necessary and sufficient conditions under which money dies in finite time. A necessary condition is that the liquidity return of money grows unbounded as the value of money approaches zero. Under CRRA preferences, the longevity of money shrinks with the money growth rate and the frequency of liquidity nee...
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作者：Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Khwaja, Asim i.
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Pomona College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California Los Angeles; Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University
摘要：We estimate and validate test score-based measures of school quality ( school value added, or SVA) in Pakistan. We document substantial variation in SVA within villages and within the public and private sectors, leading to a wide range of possible estimates of the private premium. We also show that parents value SVA. Heterogeneity in parental demand for quality helps explain both the evolution of the market over time and cross-market variation in school quality. The supply side responds to par...
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作者：Godlonton, Susan; Theoharides, Caroline
作者单位：Williams College; Amherst College
摘要：International migrants may facilitate the transmission of ideas across countries. We examine the impact of migrant exposure to reproductive health policies on origin-country fertility in the Philippines. We exploit temporal variation in destination-country reproductive health policies combined with spatial variation across Philippine provinces in their migration intensity and historical composition of migrant destinations. Migrant exposure to more liberalized reproductive health policies reduc...
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作者：Robinson, James A.
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Nigeria; University of Nigeria
摘要：My research suggests that world inequality is explained by the incidence of extractive and inclusive institutions. But why do some countries have extractive institutions? I distinguish between two main reasons; first, power relations; second, the normative order. Normative orders provide justifications and legitimacy for institutions which may not generate prosperity, but may achieve other goals. These distinctions are critical because they create very different challenges in trying to make in...
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作者：Maccheroni, Fabio; Marinacci, Massimo; Wang, Ruodu; Wu, Qinyu
作者单位：Bocconi University; University of Waterloo
摘要：We provide a new foundation of risk aversion by showing that this attitude is fully captured by the propensity to seize insurance opportunities. In our main results, we first characterize Arrow-Pratt (1963-1964) risk aversion in terms of propensity to full insurance and the stronger notion of risk aversion of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) in terms of propensity to partial insurance. We then extend the analysis to comparative risk aversion by showing that the classical notion of Yaari (1969) c...
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作者：Ali, S. Nageeb; Shorrer, Ran I.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Applicants to schools, colleges, and jobs hedge by applying to a broad range of options, including reaches, matches, and safeties. We develop a simultaneous-search framework that rationalizes this practice. In this framework, the admissions process is correlated across schools so that if an applicant is rejected by one school, she is more likely to be rejected by more selective schools. We find that an applicant then optimally targets both safeties and reaches. We characterize how the optimal ...
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作者：Braxton, J. Carter; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Rothbaum, Jonathan; Schmidt, Lawrence
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. We apply our method to administrative earnings linked with survey data. We show that since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5 percent for both employed and unemployed workers and the scarring effects of unemployment doubled. At the same time, temporary earnings risk decline...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Borovickova, Katarina; Shimer, Robert
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a linear GMM estimator of the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with an arbitrary distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We allow for competing risks, observable characteristics, and censoring. We prove our estimator is consistent and apply it to the duration of price spells. We find substantial unobserved heterogeneity with economically meaningful implications for the response of output to a monetary policy shock in a model with time-dependent prici...
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作者：Mian, Atif; Straub, Ludwig; Sufi, Amir
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a tractable framework for deficit and debt dynamics. A free lunch fiscal deficit-one that raises spending without higher future taxes-is sustainable without zero lower bound (ZLB) only when R < G-phi, where phi is the sensitivity of the interest rate to the debt level. With the ZLB, both high and low deficits can increase debt, as the latter weaken demand and reduce nominal growth at the ZLB. A rise in income inequality expands fiscal space outside the ZLB, but contracts it at the Z...
