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作者：Martin, Julien; Pesendorfer, Martin; Shannon, Jack
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Common values auction models, where bidder decisions depend on noisy signals of common values, provide predictions about Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) outcomes. In settings where these common values can be estimated, these predictions can be tested. We propose a series of tests, robust to assumptions about the signal structure, to determine whether the observed data could have been generated by a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In the setting of oil and gas lease auctions in New Mexico, we find e...
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作者：Khan, Muhammad Yasir
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：This paper studies, through a randomized field experiment involving community health workers in Pakistan, if public sector organizations can improve worker performance by investing in their mission motivation. The findings reveal that training aimed at strengthening mission motivation improves workers' performance in their core responsibility of monthly household visits, as well as in multiple tasks performed during and outside these visits. This holistic improvement in performance leads to im...
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作者：Haushofer, Johannes; Niehaus, Paul; Paramo, Carlos; Miguel, Edward; Walker, Michael
作者单位：Cornell University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A large literature has examined how best to target antipoverty programs to those most deprived in some sense (e.g., consumption). We examine the potential trade-off between this objective and targeting those most impacted by such programs. We work in the context of an NGO cash transfer program in Kenya, employing recent advances in machine learning methods and dynamic outcome data to learn proxy means tests that jointly target both objectives. Targeting solely on the basis of deprivation is no...
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作者：Costantini, Sydney
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：With a growing mental health crisis and a shortage of behavioral health specialists, those seeking mental health treatment often face long wait times to obtain care. I study how clinic congestion affects mortality for veterans experiencing mental health emergencies. I find that longer waiting times make it more likely that patients miss their follow-up mental health visit, consequently increasing the probability that they permanently disengage from care. A 1 standard deviation increase in wait...
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作者：Hartzmark, Samuel M.; Solomon, David H.
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast aggregate market stock returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value-weighted market returns, with returns for the top quintile of payment days four times higher than the lowest. This holds internationally and increases when reinvestment is high and market liquidity is low. We estimate a market-level price multiplier of 1.9. These results suggest price pressure is a widespread result ...
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作者：Yang, Frank
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：A nested bundling strategy creates menus in which more expensive bundles include all the goods of less expensive ones. We study when nested bundling is optimal and determine which nested menu is optimal, when consumers differ in one dimension. We define a partial order on bundles by (i) set inclusion and (ii) sales quantity when sold alone. We show that, under quasi-concavity assumptions, if the undominated bundles with respect to this partial order are nested, then nested bundling is optimal....
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作者：Einav, Liran; Klopack, Ben; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We study one benefit to firms of selling subscriptions: the prospect that consumers will continue to pay for subscriptions they no longer value. We use comprehensive data from a large payment card network to document that months during which cards are replaced, when active renewal is required, are associated with much higher rates of cancellation. Using two stylized models of consumer inertia-driven by inattention or switching costs-we estimate that these cancellation frictions roughly double ...
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作者：Li, Ye
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The transition toward an intangible-intensive economy reshapes financial systems by creating a self-perpetuating savings glut in the production sector. As intangibles become increasingly important, firms hoard liquidity to finance investment in intangibles of limited pledgeability. Firms' savings feed cheap leverage to financial intermediaries and allow intermediaries to bid up asset prices, which in turn encourages firms to save more for asset creation. This paper develops a macrofinance mode...
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作者：Akbarpour, Mohammad; Malladi, Suraj; Saberi, Amin
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：Identifying the optimal set of individuals to first receive information (seeds) in a social network to maximize expected diffusion is a widely studied question in many settings. Several studies propose network-centrality-based heuristics to select seeds likely to increase diffusion. Here, we show that, for the classic independent cascade model of diffusion, either seeding a few more individuals at random can prompt a larger diffusion than optimal seeding or optimal seeding itself results in li...
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作者：Gomez-cram, Roberto; Lawrence, Alastair
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：Software is one of the most important assets that needs to be priced in the digital economy. It has emerged as a disruptive technology, with companies primarily valued for their software offerings growing from 2 percent to 13 percent of market share between 1996 and 2023. We document persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software companies, indicating significant deviations from rational expectations over multiple decades. Our findings are consistent with Bayesian inve...
