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作者：Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria; Patterson, Christina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; BI Norwegian Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010-2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1-2 percentage points. Using administrative mi...
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作者：Gaubert, Cecile; Kline, Patrick; Vergara, Damian; Yagan, Danny
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study optimal income taxation in a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets. Expressions characterizing the optimal tax schedule in each community are provided that capture the fiscal externalities associated with migration and the effects of redistribution between households and landlords. Correlation between skill and locational preferences yields optimal transfers to poor areas, while sorting ba...
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作者：Shepard, Mark; Wagner, Myles
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Are application hassles, or ordeals, an effective way to limit public program enrollment? We provide new evidence by studying (removal of) an auto-enrollment policy for health insurance, adding an extra step to enroll. This minor ordeal has a major impact, reducing enrollment by 33 percent and differentially excluding young, healthy, and economically disadvantaged people. Using a simple model, we show adverse selection-a classic feature of insurance markets-undermines ordeals'standard rational...
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作者：Dillenberger, David; Segal, Uzi
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Boston College
摘要：Consider an economy with equal amounts of N types of goods, to be allocated to agents with strict quasi-convex preferences over lotteries. We show that ex ante, all Pareto-efficient allocations give almost all agents lotteries over at most two outcomes. Our results provide a simple criterion showing that many popular allocation mechanisms are ex ante inefficient. For the case of identical preferences, we establish existence of an efficient solution where all lotteries used are equally attracti...
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作者：Anenberg, Elliot; Scharlemann, Tess; van Straelen, Eileen
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing. We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy surprises to show that changes in cash-out and other borrowing are roughly offsetting. The elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates is low and varies little with the borrower's outs...
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作者：Dessein, Wouter; Frankel, Alex; Kartik, Navin
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：Many US colleges now use test-optional admissions. A frequent claim is that by not seeing standardized test scores, a college can admit a student body it prefers, say, with more diversity. But how can observing less information improve decisions? This paper proposes that test-optional policies are a response to social pressure on admission decisions. We model a college that bears disutility when it makes admission decisions that society dislikes. Going test optional allows the college to reduc...
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作者：Kleyen, Henrik; Kreiner, Claus; Larsen, Kristian; Sogaard, Jakob
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We investigate long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort. First, we develop a theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic returns to effort. In this model, earnings responses are delayed and mediated by job switches. Second, using administrative data from Denmark, we verify our model's predictions about earnings and hours-worked patterns over the life cycle. Third, we provide a quasi-experimental analysis of long-run earnings elasticities. I...
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作者：Kang, Zi Yang; Vasserman, Shoshana
作者单位：University of Toronto; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Economists routinely make functional form assumptions on demand curves to derive welfare conclusions. How sensitive are these conclusions to such assumptions? In this paper, we develop robustness measures that quantify the extent to which the true demand curve must deviate from common functional form assumptions in order to overturn a welfare conclusion. We parametrize this variability in terms of the gradient and curvature of the demand curve. By leveraging tools from information design, we s...
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作者：Guarnieri, Eleonora
作者单位：University of Bristol
摘要：Ethnically diverse countries are more prone to conflict, but why do some groups engage in conflict, while others do not? I show that civil conflict in Africa is explained by ethnic groups' cultural distance to the central government: an increase in cultural distance, proxied by linguistic distance, increases an ethnicity's propensity to fight over government power. To identify this effect, I leverage within-ethnicity variation in linguistic distance resulting from power transitions between eth...
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作者：Boehm, Johannes; Fize, Etienne; Jaravel, Xavier
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Paris School of Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume ( MPC ) out of transitory transfers: ( 1 ) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; ( 2 ) it is substantially higher ( 61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; ( 3 ) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; ( 4 ) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liq...
