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作者：Pallais, Amanda; Sands, Emily Glassberg
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Referred workers are more likely than nonreferred workers to be hired, all else equal. In three field experiments in an online labor market, we examine why. We find that referrals contain positive information about worker performance and persistence that is not contained in workers' observable characteristics. We also find that referrals perform particularly well when working directly with their referrers. However, we do not find evidence that referrals exert more effort because they believe t...
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作者：Bagues, Manuel; Esteve-Volart, Berta
作者单位：Aalto University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; York University - Canada
摘要：Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provin...
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作者：Jepsen, Christopher; Mueser, Peter; Troske, Kenneth
作者单位：University College Dublin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; University of Kentucky
摘要：We evaluate returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification for high school dropouts using state administrative data. We apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity method to account for test takers retaking the test. For women we find that GED certification has no statistically significant effect on either employment or earnings. For men we find a significant increase in earnings in the second year after taking the test but no impact in subsequent years. GED certification increases ...
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作者：Burnside, Craig; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio
作者单位：Duke University; University of Glasgow; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of social dynamics. Agents with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skep...
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作者：Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Reynolds, Stanley S.; Samano, Mario
作者单位：University of Arizona; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A key problem with solar energy is intermittency: solar generators produce only when the sun is shining, adding to social costs and requiring electricity system operators to reoptimize key decisions. We develop a method to quantify the economic value of large-scale renewable energy. We estimate the model for southeastern Arizona. Not accounting for offset carbon dioxide, we find social costs of $138.40 per megawatt hour for 20 percent solar generation, of which unforecastable intermittency acc...
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作者：Lagakos, David
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Many macroeconomists argue that productivity is low in developing countries because of frictions that impede the adoption of modern technologies. I argue that in the retail trade sector, developing countries rationally choose technologies with low measured labor productivity. My theory is that the adoption of modern retail technologies is optimal only when household ownership of complementary durable goods, such as cars, is widespread. Because income is low in the developing world, households ...
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作者：Mitch, David
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore County
摘要：The year 1946 has been seen as a pivotal year of transition by historians of the Chicago Economics Department, in large part as a result of the arrival of Milton Friedman that year. This essay examines new evidence on department deliberations on faculty hiring in February of 1946. It argues that Friedman's recruitment reflected a compromise between Frank Knight and his followers on the one hand and those associated with the Cowles Commission on the other.
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作者：Naidu, Suresh; Nyarko, Yaw; Wang, Shing-Yi
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：By exploiting a reform in the United Arab Emirates that relaxed restrictions on employer transitions, we provide new estimates of the monopsony power of firms over migrant workers. Our results show that the reform increased incumbent migrants' earnings and firm retention. This occurs despite an increase in employer transitions and is driven by a fall in country exits. While the outcomes of incumbents improved, the reform decreased demand for new migrants and lowered their earnings. These resul...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Hanley, Douglas; Kerr, William
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Pennsylvania; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Harvard University
摘要：We develop an endogenous growth model in which clean and dirty technologies compete in production. Research can be directed to either technology. If dirty technologies are more advanced, the transition to clean technology can be difficult. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We estimate the model using microdata from the US energy sector. We then characterize the optimal policy path tha...
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作者：Battaglini, Marco; Harstad, Bard
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Oslo
摘要：We analyze participation in international environmental agreements in a dynamic game in which countries pollute and invest in green technologies. If complete contracts are feasible, participants eliminate the holdup problemassociated with their investments; however, most countries prefer to free ride rather than participate. If investments are noncontractible, countries face a holdup problemevery time they negotiate; but the free-rider problem can be mitigated and significant participation is ...
