Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Burnside, Craig; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio
• 署名单位: Duke University; University of Glasgow; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/686732
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1088-1147
• 关键词: stock-market; long-run; prices; confidence; portfolio; BEHAVIOR; MODEL

摘要

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of social dynamics. Agents with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skeptical agents happen to be correct. The booms that are not followed by busts typically occur when optimistic agents happen to be correct.