Intermittency and the Value of Renewable Energy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Reynolds, Stanley S.; Samano, Mario
• 署名单位: University of Arizona; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/686733
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1187-1234
• 关键词: POWER; generation; MARKET; SYSTEM; COSTS; solar; errors

摘要

A key problem with solar energy is intermittency: solar generators produce only when the sun is shining, adding to social costs and requiring electricity system operators to reoptimize key decisions. We develop a method to quantify the economic value of large-scale renewable energy. We estimate the model for southeastern Arizona. Not accounting for offset carbon dioxide, we find social costs of $138.40 per megawatt hour for 20 percent solar generation, of which unforecastable intermittency accounts for $6.10 and intermittency overall for $46.00. With solar installation costs of $1.52 per watt and carbon dioxide social costs of $39.00 per ton, 20 percent solar would be welfare neutral.