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作者：Anagol, Santosh; Fujiwara, Thomas
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and we find no effe...
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作者：Bocola, Luigi
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of sovereign risk in a model in which banks hold domestic government debt. News of a future sovereign default hampers financial intermediation. First, it tightens the funding constraints of banks, reducing their resources to finance firms (liquidity channel). Second, it generates a precautionary motive to deleverage (risk channel). I estimate the model using Italian data, finding that sovereign risk was recessionary and that the risk channel w...
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作者：Barreca, Alan; Clay, Karen; Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael; Shapiro, Joseph S.
作者单位：Tulane University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of Chicago; Yale University
摘要：This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80 degrees F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-...
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作者：Alatas, Vivi; Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Purnamasari, Ririn; Wai-Poi, Matthew
作者单位：The World Bank; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
摘要：This paper shows that adding a small application cost to a transfer program can substantially improve targeting through self-selection. Our village-level experiment in Indonesia finds that requiring beneficiaries to apply for benefits results in substantially poorer beneficiaries than automatic enrollment using the same asset test. Marginally increasing application costs on an experimental basis does not further improve targeting. Estimating a model of the application decision implies that the...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; International Monetary Fund; McMaster University
摘要：We measure the effects of debt dilution on sovereign default risk and study debt covenants that could mitigate these effects. We calibrate a baseline model with endogenous debt duration and default risk (in which debt can be diluted) using data from Spain. We find that debt dilution accounts for 78 percent of the default risk in the baseline economy and that eliminating dilution increases the optimal duration of sovereign debt by almost 2 years. Eliminating dilution also increases consumption ...
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作者：Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：This paper analyzes the inefficiencies arising from the combination of fixed exchange rates, nominal rigidity, and free capital mobility. We document that nominal wages are downwardly rigid in emerging countries. We develop an open-economy model that incorporates this friction. The model predicts that the combination of a currency peg and free capital mobility creates a negative externality that causes over-borrowing during booms and high unemployment during contractions. Optimal capital contr...
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作者：Klein, Tobias J.; Lambertz, Christian; Stahl, Konrad O.
作者单位：Tilburg University; University of Mannheim; University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
摘要：We study how an improvement in market transparency affects seller exit and continuing sellers' behavior in a market setting that involves informational asymmetries. The improvement was achieved by reducing strategic bias in buyer ratings. It led to a significant increase in buyer satisfaction with seller performance, but not to an increase in seller exit. When sellers had the choice between exiting-a reduction in adverse selection-and staying but improving behavior-a reduction in moral hazard-...
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作者：Algan, Yann; Hemet, Camille; Laitin, David D.
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Stanford University
摘要：Relying on diversity measures computed at the apartment block level under conditions of exogenous allocation of public housing in France, this paper identifies the effects of ethnic diversity on social relationships and housing quality. Housing Survey data reveal that diversity induces social anomie. Through the channel of anomie, diversity accounts for the inability of residents to sanction others for vandalism and to act collectively to demand proper building maintenance. However, anomie als...
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Dechezlepretre, Antoine; Hemous, David; Martin, Ralf; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; INSEAD Business School; Imperial College London; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between dirty (internal combustion engine) and clean (e.g., electric, hybrid, and hydrogen) patents across 80 countries over several decades. We show that firms tend to innovate more in clean (and less in dirty) technologies when they face higher tax-inclusive fuel prices. Furthermore, there is path dependence in the type of innovation (clean/dirty) ...
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作者：Azevedo, Eduardo M.; Leshno, Jacob D.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Microsoft; Microsoft India; Columbia University
摘要：This paper develops a price-theoretic framework for matching markets with heterogeneous preferences. The model departs from the Gale and Shapley model by assuming that a finite number of agents on one side (colleges) are matched to a continuum of agents on the other side (students). We show that stable matchings correspond to solutions of supply and demand equations, with the selectivity of each college playing a role similar to that of prices. We apply the model to an analysis of how competit...
