-
作者：Smith, Dominic a.; Ocampo, Sergio
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Increasing national concentration has contributed to market power concerns. Yet local trends are more informative about market power in retail, where consumers have traditionally shopped at nearby stores. Using novel product-level census data for all US retailers, we find that local and national concentration increased in parallel and affect most markets, products, and industries. The expansion of multimarket firms into new markets explains most of the increase in national concentration, with ...
-
作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso
作者单位：York University - Canada
摘要：I study the effects of Ethiopia's 1997-2014 road expansion program on agricultural productivity and structural change by combining a quantitative spatial sectoral framework with novel district-level panel data on agricultural production and geocoded transport costs. In the model, the spatial heterogeneity of transport costs affects the distribution of production and mobile inputs across locations and sectors, and the allocation of land across crops within locations. Varying transport costs to ...
-
作者：Jo, YooN Joo; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation and, consequently, for real wages. Using US historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low-inflation recessi...
-
作者：Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices...
-
作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz; Wiederholt, Mirko
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Munich
摘要：We solve a real business cycle model with rational inattention (an RI-RBC model). In the RI-RBC model, the growth rates of employment, investment, and output are about as persistent as in the data, with an amount of inattention consistent with survey data on expectations. Moreover, consumption, employment, and output move in the same direction in response to news about future productivity. By contrast, the baseline RBC model produces neither persistent growth rates nor business cycle comovemen...
-
作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We test the key implication of the buffer-stock model, namely that any revision in permanent income leads to a proportionate revision in target wealth. We use panel data on the amount of wealth that people think they must hold for precautionary purposes. Using the covariance restrictions that the model imposes on the joint behavior of income and target wealth, we find that households indeed revise, approximately one for one, their target wealth in response to permanent income shocks. The speed...
-
作者：Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine; Robstad, Qrjan; Rubio-ramirez, Juan; Ulvedal, Pal
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Norges Bank; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Nord University
摘要：In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples starting in the 1980s. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-te...
-
作者：Toews, Gerhard; Vezina, Pierre-louis
作者单位：New Economic School; University of London; King's College London
摘要：The Soviet regime forcedly sent millions of enemies of the people, i.e. the educated elite considered a threat to the regime, to Gulag camps across the USSR. We use this large-scale episode of terror as a natural experiment to provide evidence on the long-run persistence of human capital across generations and its effect on economic growth. We combine archive data from the Gulag with the 2018 Russian firm census to show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among camp prisoner...
-
作者：Nakajima, Makoto; Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Many US households have significant wealth late in life, contrary to the predictions of a simple life-cycle model. By comparison, retirees in Sweden decumulate wealth more quickly while facing smaller out-of-pocket medical expense risks late in life. In this paper, we investigate how well the latter can account for the former using a full life-cycle consumption-saving model. We find that medical expense level and risk account for 32-59 percent of the US-Sweden difference in retirees' speed of ...
-
作者：Chi, Chun-che; Schmitt-grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A central prediction of open economy models with a pecuniary externality due to a collateral constraint is that the unregulated economy overborrows relative to what occurs under optimal policy. A maintained assumption in this literature is that households borrow directly from foreign lenders. This paper shows that if foreign lending is intermediated by domestic banks and the government can pay interest on bank reserves and impose capital controls, the unregulated economy underborrows. The opti...
