Estimating Hysteresis Effects

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine; Robstad, Qrjan; Rubio-ramirez, Juan; Ulvedal, Pal
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Norges Bank; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Nord University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220163
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 35-70
• 关键词: structural vector autoregressions; business-cycle; technology shocks; monetary-policy; aggregate demand; sign restrictions; identification; inference; fluctuations; unemployment

摘要

In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples starting in the 1980s. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers. (JEL C51, E22, E23, E24, E32, J22, J24)