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作者：Li, Wenhao
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the equilibrium effect of public liquidity on financial crises. Banks borrow from households via insured deposits and partially runnable debt and suffer endogenous funding withdrawals from households in crises. Holding public liquidity alleviates banks' liquidity problems. In equilibrium, a larger public liquidity supply reduces crisis severity and expands bank lending but crowds bank deposits and increases bank vulnerability to real shocks. The model quantitatively explains...
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作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso
作者单位：York University - Canada
摘要：I study the effects of Ethiopia's 1997-2014 road expansion program on agricultural productivity and structural change by combining a quantitative spatial sectoral framework with novel district-level panel data on agricultural production and geocoded transport costs. In the model, the spatial heterogeneity of transport costs affects the distribution of production and mobile inputs across locations and sectors, and the allocation of land across crops within locations. Varying transport costs to ...
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作者：Jo, YooN Joo; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation and, consequently, for real wages. Using US historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low-inflation recessi...
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作者：Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while micro studies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We construct hundreds of variables from high-frequency, high-spatial-resolution weather measurements. Using the LASSO, we identify the parsimonious subset of variables that can best explain GDP and key macrofiscal variables. We find that scarcer mild temperatures and an increase in the occurrence of high temperatu...
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作者：Macaluso, Claudia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：Local skill remoteness captures the dissimilarity between the skill profiles of a worker's last job and other jobs in a local labor market. Higher skill remoteness at layoff is associated with persistently lower earnings after layoff, a higher probability of changing occupation, a lower probability of being reemployed at jobs with similar skill profiles, and a higher propensity to migrate. Jobs destroyed in recessions are also more skill remote than those lost in booms. The local skill remoten...
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作者：Evans, George W.; Gibbs, Christopher G.; Mcgough, Bruce
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; University of Sydney
摘要：We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning in response to forecast errors, observed and counterfactual. The unified model makes sharp predictions for when and how quickly markets converge in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments, including novel predictions for individual and market behavio...
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作者：Toews, Gerhard; Vezina, Pierre-louis
作者单位：New Economic School; University of London; King's College London
摘要：The Soviet regime forcedly sent millions of enemies of the people, i.e. the educated elite considered a threat to the regime, to Gulag camps across the USSR. We use this large-scale episode of terror as a natural experiment to provide evidence on the long-run persistence of human capital across generations and its effect on economic growth. We combine archive data from the Gulag with the 2018 Russian firm census to show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among camp prisoner...
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作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, Antonio; Sala, Luca; Soccorsi, Stefano
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; University of Turin; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Bocconi University; Lancaster University
摘要：We provide a few new empirical facts that theoretical models should feature in order to be consistent with the data. (i) There are two classes of shocks: demand and supply. Supply shocks have long-run effects on economic activity; demand shocks do not. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of business cycles' fluctuations. (iii) Supply shocks are the primary driver for consumption fluctuations, demand shocks for investment. (iv) The demand shock is closely related to the cre...
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作者：Smith, Dominic a.; Ocampo, Sergio
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Increasing national concentration has contributed to market power concerns. Yet local trends are more informative about market power in retail, where consumers have traditionally shopped at nearby stores. Using novel product-level census data for all US retailers, we find that local and national concentration increased in parallel and affect most markets, products, and industries. The expansion of multimarket firms into new markets explains most of the increase in national concentration, with ...
