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作者：Cai, Xiaoming; Gautier, Pieter; Wolthoff, Ronald
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Toronto
摘要：We examine how search frictions impact labor market sorting by constructing a model consistent with evidence that employers interview a subset of a pool of applicants. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for sorting in applications and matches. Positive sorting is obtained when production complementarities outweigh a counterforce measured by a (novel) quality-quantity elasticity. Interestingly, the threshold for the complementarities depends on the fraction of high-type workers and c...
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作者：Lee, Byoungchan
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：I construct an incomplete market model featuring a closed-form expression for optimal consumption. In the model, individual consumption is an isoelastic function of wealth, inclusive of income, yielding partial consumption smoothing based on borrowing and lending in response to income shocks. I show that the model replicates several empirical characteristics of inequality in consumption, income, and wealth and their dynamics at the individual level. Using the model, I show that the rising weal...
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作者：Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Zaratiegui, Emilio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：We study the distribution of labor income during large devaluations. Across countries, inequality falls after large devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better understand inequality dynamics, we use a novel administrative dataset covering the 2002 Argentinean devaluation. We show that following a homogeneous fall in real labor income across workers, the bottom of the income distribution recovers faster than the top....
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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：In this paper, I show that the decline in consumption during unemployment depends on both liquid and illiquid wealth; that unemployment predicts illiquid asset withdrawal, primarily when households have few liquid assets; and that increased idiosyncratic unemployment risk leads to a rise in saving overall, but also to a decline in investment in illiquid assets. Motivated by these new findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset, heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The mod...
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作者：Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 m...
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作者：Chugh, Sanjay K.; Shapiro, Alan Finkelstein
作者单位：Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Tufts University
摘要：We build a model to study how the countercyclicality of temporary layoffs affects unemployment, firm entry and exit, and macroeconomic fluctuations. The model can quantitatively generate the rich cyclical dynamics of temporary layoffs, unemployment, and firms in US data. The cyclicality of temporary layoffs plays a key role in limiting the contraction in job creation and the rise in unemployment during recessions. Amid factual wage dynamics, the countercyclical buffer from temporary layoffs ex...
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作者：Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock. (JEL E23, E32, E43, F14, F44, O11)
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作者：Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across ...
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作者：Faia, Ester; Salomao, Juliana; Veghazy, Alexia Ventula
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; European Central Bank
摘要：We estimate euro-dollar yields differences, hedged and unhedged, with euro area confidential corporate bond holdings data. We find that euro yields significantly decline relative to dollar yields-more for securities in the portfolios of investors that prefer euro securities and securities eligible for the European Central Bank asset purchase programs. We then test and uncover a negative relation between the estimated yields differentials and purchases at the aggregate and firm level-stronger f...
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作者：Matthes, Christian; Schwartzman, Felipe
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We measure the impact of household consumption shocks on aggregate fluctuations. These shocks affect household consumption directly, and production and prices indirectly through their impact on aggregate consumption. We show how to identify such shocks using prior knowledge of their differential impact across sectoral variables. Shocks independently affecting household consumption demand have accounted for around 40 percent of business cycle fluctuations since the mid-1970s, playing a central ...
