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作者：Lucas, Robert E., Jr.
摘要：This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the inco...
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作者：Rajan, Raghuram G.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：When citizens in a poor constrained society are unequally endowed, they are likely to find it hard to agree on reforms, even though the status quo hurts them collectively. Each citizen group or constituency prefers reforms that expand its opportunities, but in an unequal society, this will typically hurt another constituency's rents. Competitive rent preservation ensures no comprehensive reform path may command broad support. The roots of underdevelopment may therefore lie in the natural tende...
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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper reexamines the evidence on the border effect. We argue that if there is cross-country heterogeneity in the distribution of within-country price differentials, there is no clear benchmark from which to gauge the effect of a border. In the absence of a structural model or a (natural) experiment, it is impossible to separate the border effect from the effect of trading with a country with a different distribution of prices. We show that the border effect identified by Engel and Rogers ...
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作者：Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：While macroeconomics is often thought of as a deeply divided field, with less of a shared core and correspondingly less cumulative progress than other areas of economics, in fact, there are fewer fundamental disagreements among macroeconomists now than in past decades. This is due to important progress in resolving seemingly intractable debates. In this paper, I review some of those debates and outline important elements of the new synthesis in macroeconomic theory. I discusses the extent to w...
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作者：Gali, Jordi; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labo...
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作者：Algan, Yann; Cahuc, Pierre
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris
摘要：We argue civic virtue plays a key role in explaining the design of public insurance against unemployment risks by solving moral hazard issues which hinder the efficiency of unemployment insurance. We show, in a simple model, that economies with stronger civic virtues are more prone to provide insurance through unemployment benefits rather than through job protection. We provide cross-country empirical evidence of a strong correlation between civic attitudes and the design of unemployment benef...
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作者：Elsby, Michael W. L.; Michaels, Ryan; Solon, Gary
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Michigan State University
摘要：A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in eac...
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作者：Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; McGrattan, Ellen R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice. We do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate struct...
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作者：Shimer, Robert
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I review research on the behavior of the labor wedge, the ratio between the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure and the marginal product of labor. According to competitive, market-clearing macroeconomic models, the ratio is easy to measure and should be equal to the sum of consumption and labor taxes. The observation that the wedge is higher in continental Europe than in the United States has proved useful for understanding the extent to which taxes can explain differences...
