-
作者：Lucas, Robert E., Jr.
摘要：This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the inco...
-
作者：Engel, Charles; Matsumoto, Akito
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some nominal goods prices are sticky. Trade in these assets achieves the same allocations as trade in a complete set of nominal state-contingent claims in our linearized model. When there is a high degree of price stickiness, we show that not much equity diversification is required to replicate the complete-markets equilibrium wh...
-
作者：Rajan, Raghuram G.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：When citizens in a poor constrained society are unequally endowed, they are likely to find it hard to agree on reforms, even though the status quo hurts them collectively. Each citizen group or constituency prefers reforms that expand its opportunities, but in an unequal society, this will typically hurt another constituency's rents. Competitive rent preservation ensures no comprehensive reform path may command broad support. The roots of underdevelopment may therefore lie in the natural tende...
-
作者：Burnside, Craig; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio
作者单位：Duke University; Northwestern University; Northwestern University
摘要：High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low interest rate currencies. We argue that adverse selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this forward premium puzzle. The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when an agent wants to trade against a public information signal. So, when based on public information, the currency is expected to appreciate, there is more adverse selection...
-
作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper reexamines the evidence on the border effect. We argue that if there is cross-country heterogeneity in the distribution of within-country price differentials, there is no clear benchmark from which to gauge the effect of a border. In the absence of a structural model or a (natural) experiment, it is impossible to separate the border effect from the effect of trading with a country with a different distribution of prices. We show that the border effect identified by Engel and Rogers ...
-
作者：An, Sungbae; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：Singapore Management University; University of Rochester; Yonsei University; Korea University
摘要：Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using ...
-
作者：Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky information as a laboratory to study monetary policy. It characterizes the model's predictions for macro dynamics and optimal policy at prior parameters, and then uses data on five US macroeconomic series to update the parameters and provide an estimated model that can be used for policy analysis. The model answers a few policy questions. How does sticky information affect optimal monetary policy? What is the opt...
-
作者：Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：While macroeconomics is often thought of as a deeply divided field, with less of a shared core and correspondingly less cumulative progress than other areas of economics, in fact, there are fewer fundamental disagreements among macroeconomists now than in past decades. This is due to important progress in resolving seemingly intractable debates. In this paper, I review some of those debates and outline important elements of the new synthesis in macroeconomic theory. I discusses the extent to w...
-
作者：Werker, Eric; Ahmed, Faisal Z.; Cohen, Charles
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago
摘要：We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported nonca...
-
作者：Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.
作者单位：Northwestern University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contempor...
