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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Figura, Andrew
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We estimate an aggregate matching function and find that the regression residual, which captures movements in matching efficiency, displays procyclical fluctuations and a dramatic decline after 2007. Using a matching function framework that explicitly takes into account worker heterogeneity as well as market segmentation, we show that matching efficiency movements can be the result of variations in the degree of heterogeneity in the labor market. Matching efficiency declines substantially when...
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作者：Curtis, Chadwick C.; Lugauer, Steven; Mark, Nelson C.
作者单位：University of Richmond; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies how demographic variation affects the aggregate household saving rate. We focus on China because it is experiencing an historic demographic transition and has had a massive increase in household saving. We conduct a quantitative investigation using a structural overlapping generations model that incorporates parental care through support for dependent children and financial transfers to retirees. The saving decisions in the parameterized model mimic many of the features obse...
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作者：Gertler, Mark; Karadi, Peter
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; European Central Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting modest movements in short rates lead to large movements in credit costs, which are due mainly to the reaction of both term premi...
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作者：Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Munich
摘要：This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for d...
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作者：Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Sannikov, Yuliy
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic two-country neoclassical stochastic growth model with incomplete markets. Short-term credit flows can be excessive and reverse suddenly. The equilibrium outcome is constrained inefficient due to pecuniary externalities. First, an undercapitalized country borrows too much since each firm does not internalize that an increase in production capacity undermines their output price, worsening their terms of trade. From an ex ante perspective each firm undermines the nat...
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作者：Jalil, Andrew J.
作者单位：Occidental College
摘要：There are two major problems in identifying the output effects of banking panics of the pre-Great Depression era. First, it is not clear when panics occurred because prior panic series differ in their identification of panic episodes. Second, establishing the direction of causality is tricky. This paper addresses these two problems (i) by deriving a new panic series for the 1825-1929 period and (ii) by studying the output effects of major banking panics via vector autoregression (VAR) and narr...
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作者：Gali, Jordi; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：We estimate the response of stock prices to monetary policy shocks using a time-varying coefficients VAR. Our evidence points to protracted episodes in which stock prices end up increasing persistently in response to an exogenous tightening of monetary policy. That response is at odds with the conventional view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also argue that it is unlikely that such evidence can be accounted for by an endog...
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作者：Rotemberg, Julio J.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Overoptimism regarding one's ability to arrive early in a queue is shown to rationalize deposit contracts in which people can withdraw their funds on demand even if consumption takes place later. Capitalized institutions serving overoptimistic depositors emerge in equilibrium even if depositors and bank owners have identical preferences and investment opportunities. Consistent with the evidence, runs can lead people to move their deposits from one intermediary to another. Regulatory policies, ...
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作者：Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc P.; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008:IV. ...
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作者：Tombe, Trevor
作者单位：University of Calgary
摘要：Agriculture in poor countries has low productivity, high employment, and negligible trade flows relative to other sectors. These facts motivate a multisector, open-economy view of international productivity differences. With a quantitative multicountry model featuring nonhomothetic preferences, multiple interrelated sectors, distorted labor markets, and costly trade, I find: trade amplifies the negative effect of labor market distortions; trade costs-large for poor countries, especially in agr...
