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作者：Herrendorf, Berthold; Herrington, Christopher; Valentinyi, Akos
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Virginia Commonwealth University; Cardiff University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We assess how the properties of technology affect structural transformation, i.e., the reallocation of production factors across the broad sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services. To this end, we estimate sectoral constant elasticity of substitution (CES) and Cobb-Douglas production functions on postwar US data. We find that differences in technical progress across the three sectors are the dominant force behind structural transformation whereas other differences across sectoral te...
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作者：Fernandez, Andres; Gulan, Adam
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Bank of Finland
摘要：Countercyclical country interest rates have been shown to be an important characteristic of business cycles in emerging markets. In this paper we provide a microfounded rationale for this pattern by linking interest rate spreads to the dynamics of corporate leverage. For this purpose we embed a financial accelerator into a business cycle model of a small open economy and estimate it on a novel panel dataset for emerging economies that merges macroeconomic and financial data. The model accounts...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：I characterize optimal taxes in a life-cycle economy where ability and human capital are unobservable. I show that unobservable human capital effectively makes preferences over labor nonseparable across age. I generalize the static optimal tax formulas to account for such nonseparabilities and show how they depend both on own-Frisch labor elasticities and cross-Frisch labor elasticities. I calibrate the economy to US data. I find that the optimal marginal income taxes decrease with age, in con...
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作者：Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University
摘要：A central result in international macroeconomics is that a government cannot simultaneously opt for open financial markets, fixed exchange rates, and monetary autonomy; rather, it is constrained to choosing no more than two of these three. This paper considers whether partial capital controls and limited exchange rate flexibility allow for full monetary policy autonomy. We find partial capital controls do not generally allow for greater monetary control than with open capital accounts, unless ...
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作者：Kleinert, Journ; Martin, Julien; Toubal, Farid
作者单位：University of Graz; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite Paris Saclay; Paris School of Economics
摘要：This paper argues that the correlation of business cycles across countries is largely due to linkages between multinational firms and their foreign affiliates. There are very few foreign affiliates in France, but they contribute considerably to aggregate economic activities. We exploit the heterogeneity in the presence and origin of foreign affiliates across French regions to identify their impact on comovement. We find a positive impact of foreign affiliates' presence on the comovement of bus...
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作者：Jung, Philip; Kuester, Keith
作者单位：Dortmund University of Technology; University of Bonn
摘要：Within a search and matching model with risk-averse workers, endogenous hiring and separation, and unobservable search effort, we show how to decentralize the constrained-efficient allocation by a combination of a production tax and three labor-market policy instruments: vacancy subsidies, layoff taxes, and unemployment benefits. We derive analytical expressions for the optimal mix of these over the business cycle. Calibrating the model to the US economy under the assumption that wages are rig...
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作者：Svensson, Lars E. O.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes nonvertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage points. The estimates reported suggest that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve is about 0.75. Then the average unemployment rate...
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作者：Fuller, David L.; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：An important incentive problem for the design of unemployment insurance is the fraudulent collection of unemployment benefits by workers who are gainfully employed. We show how to efficiently use a combination of tax/subsidy and monitoring to prevent such fraud. The optimal policy monitors the unemployed at fixed intervals. Employment tax is nonmonotonic: it increases between verifications but decreases after a verification. Unemployment benefits are relatively flat between verifications but d...
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作者：Buera, Francisco J.; Moll, Benjamin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Princeton University
摘要：We take an off-the-shelf model with financial frictions and heterogeneity, and study the mapping from a credit crunch, modeled as a shock to collateral constraints, to simple aggregate wedges. We study three variants of this model that only differ in the form of underlying heterogeneity. We find that in all three model variants a credit crunch shows up as a different wedge: efficiency, investment, and labor wedges. Furthermore, all three model variants have an undistorted Euler equation for th...
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作者：Gilchrist, Simon; Lopez-Salido, David; Zakrajsek, Egon
作者单位：Boston University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). For the ZLB period, we identify two policy surprises: changes in the two-year Treasury yield around policy announcements and changes in the ten-year Treasury yield that are orthogonal to those in the two-year yield. The efficacy of unconventional policy in lowering real borrowing costs is c...
