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作者：Camous, Antoine; Cooper, Russell
作者单位：University of Mannheim; European University Institute; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt, leaving a government with a higher debt burden. This increases the likelihood of default, thus confirming the pessimism of lenders. Can monetary interventions mitigate debt fragility? With one-period commitment to a state-contingent policy, the monetary authority can indeed overcome strategic uncertainty. Under discretion, debt-fragility remains unless reputat...
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作者：He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model al...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Poilly, Celine
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Lausanne; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：In the aftermath of the US financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on US data, we argue that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogenous firms need cash and external liquid funds in their production process. We analyze the dynamic impact of aggregate shocks and the cross-f...
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Zylbergberg, Yanos
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bristol
摘要：A substantial fraction of workers are underemployed, i.e., employed in jobs for which they are overqualified, and that fraction-the underemployment rate is higher in recessions. To explain these facts, we build a search model with an endogenous ranking mechanism, in which high-skill applicants are systematically hired over less-skilled competing applicants. Some high-skill workers become underemployed in order to escape the competition for high-skill jobs and find a job more rapidly at the exp...
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作者：Ferriere, Axelle; Karantounias, Anastasios G.
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that without ambiguity, optimal surplus-to-output ratios are acyclical and that there is no rationale for either reduction or further accumulation of public debt. In contrast, ambiguity about the cycle can generate optimally policies that resemble austerity measures. Optimal policy prescribes higher taxes in adverse times and front-loaded fiscal consolidations that lead to a balanced p...
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作者：Fratzscher, Marcel; Gloede, Oliver; Menkhoff, Lukas; Sarno, Lucio; Stoehr, Tobias
作者单位：Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Swiss National Bank (SNB); City St Georges, University of London; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, ...
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作者：Caggese, Andrea
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：I provide new empirical evidence on the negative relationship between financial frictions and productivity growth over a firm's life cycle. I show that a model of firm dynamics with incremental innovation cannot explain this evidence. However, further including radical innovation, which is very risky but potentially very productive, allows for the joint replication of several stylized facts about the dynamics of young and old firms and the differences in productivity growth in industries with ...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Optimal forward guidance is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some optimally determined number of periods after the liquidity trap ends and moving to normal-times optimal policy thereafter. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new Keynesian model and show that it is close to fully optimal Ramsey policy. The simple rule announce a duration of half of the trap's duration times the disruption is a good approximation, including in a medium-scale dynamic stochastic...
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作者：Hedilund, Aaron
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：Can inflating away nominal mortgage liabilities effectively combat recessions? I address this question using a model of illiquid housing, endogenous credit supply, and equilibrium default. I show that, in an ordinary recession, temporarily raising the inflation target has only modest or even counterproductive effects. However, during episodes like the Great Recession, inflation effectively boosts house prices, consumption, and dramatically cuts foreclosures, but only when fixed-rate mortgages ...
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作者：Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias
作者单位：University of London; Birkbeck University London; Banco de Espana
摘要：We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of popul...
