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作者：Caicedo, Santiago; Lucas, Robert E., Jr.; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：University of Chicago; Princeton University
摘要：We develop a theory of career paths and earnings where agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these hierarchies as they learn stochastically from others. Earnings grow as agents acquire knowledge and occupy positions with more subordinates. We contrast these and other implications with US census data for the period 1990 to 2010, matching the Lorenz curve of earnings and the observed mean experience-earnings profiles. We show the increase in wage inequality over this period can...
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作者：Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Mehrotra, Neil R.; Robbins, Jacob A.
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from - 1.5 percent to - 2 percent, implying an elevated ...
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作者：Burstein, Ariel; Morales, Eduardo; Vogel, Jonathan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We provide a unifying framework to quantify the impact of several determinants of changes in US between-group inequality. We use an assignment framework with many labor groups, equipment types, and occupations in which changes in inequality are driven by changes in workforce composition, occupation demand, computerization, and labor productivity. We parameterize the model using direct measures of computer usage within labor group-occupation pairs and quantify the impact of each shock for vario...
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作者：Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel; Lale, Etienne
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We document that fluctuations in part-time employment play a major role in movements in hours per worker during cyclical swings in the labor market. Building on this result, we develop a stock-flow framework to describe the dynamics of part-time employment. The evolution of part-time employment is predominantly explained by cyclical changes in transitions between full-time and part-time employment. Those transitions occur overwhelmingly at the same employer, entail sizable changes in individua...
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作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.; West, Kenneth D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force ...
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作者：Ottonello, Pablo; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; New York University
摘要：We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local curr...
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作者：Baley, Isaac; Blanco, Andres
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We develop a framework to study the impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty on aggregate economic outcomes. Agents learn about individual characteristics, which receive infrequent, large, and persistent shocks. In this environment, idiosyncratic uncertainty moves in cycles, fluctuating between periods of high and low uncertainty; with additional fixed adjustment costs, the frequency and size of agents' actions also fluctuate in cycles. We apply our framework to study pricing behavior and the propa...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Sotelo, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and services are complements. International trade also raises real income, which reduces manufacturing employment if services are more income elastic than manufactures. Manufacturing production is unskilled-labo...
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作者：Caldara, Dario; Herbst, Edward
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that during the Great Moderation period, monetary policy shocks induce a persistent decline in real activity and tightening in financial conditions. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in corporate credit spreads. The failure to account for this e...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Osotimehin, Sophie
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We study how factors that hinder the reallocation of inputs across firms influence aggregate productivity growth. We extend Hopenhayn and Rogerson's (1993) firm-dynamics model to allow for endogenous innovation. We evaluate the effects of firing taxes on reallocation, innovation, and productivity growth. We find firing taxes can have opposite effects on entrants' innovation and incumbents' innovation, and the overall outcome depends on the relative strengths of these forces. In the entrant-dri...
