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作者：Eeckhout, Jan; Lindenlaub, Ilse
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of London; University College London; Yale University
摘要：The labor market by itself can create cyclical outcomes, even in the absence of exogenous shocks. We propose a theory in which the search behavior of the employed has profound aggregate implications for the unemployed. There is a strategic complementarity between active on-the-job search and vacancy posting by firms, which leads to multiple equilibria: in the presence of sorting, active on-the-job search improves the quality of the pool of searchers. This encourages vacancy posting, which in t...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek; Neira, Julian
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Exeter
摘要：We study optimal tax policies in a-life-cycle economy with permanent ability differences and risky human capital investments that have both an unobservable component, learning effort, and an observable component, schooling. The optimal policies balance redistribution across agents, insurance against human capital shocks, and incentives to learn and work. In the optimum, (i)-high-ability agents face risky consumption while-low-ability agents are insured; (ii) the optimal schooling subsidy is su...
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作者：Faberman, R. Jason; Kudlyak, Marianna
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We use online job application data to study the relationship between search intensity and search duration. The data allow us to control for job seeker composition and the evolution of available job openings over the duration of search. We find that, within an individual search spell, search intensity declines continuously. We also find that longer-duration job seekers search more intensely throughout their search. They tend to be older, male, nonemployed, and live in areas with weaker labor ma...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of bubbles in the North. Bubbles in the north in turn facilitate South-to-North capital flows. The model can simultaneously explain several stylized features of recent bubble episodes.
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We build a medium-scale DSGE model and calibrate it to fit the main macroeconomic variables during the US Great Recession. Using it to evaluate the welfare effects of increasing government consumption at the zero lower bound beyond what was actually observed in the data, we reach three main results. First, the increase in government consumption after 2008, albeit small in present value terms, was close to optimal. Second, frontloading the same stimulus would have been welfare-improving. Third,...
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作者：Fan, Jingting
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：I develop a spatial-equilibrium model to quantify the distributional impacts of international trade in an economy with intranational trade and migration costs. Focusing on China, I find that international trade increases both between-region inequality among workers with similar skills and within-region inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, with the former accounting for 75 percent of the overall inequality increase. Ignoring spatial frictions will underestimate trade's impact on th...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Vollrath, Dietrich
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：Today, the world's fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the killer cities of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and co...
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作者：Anzoategui, Diego; Comin, Diego; Gertler, Mark; Martinez, Joseba
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop, and estimate a model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for costly development and adoption of technologies. Our main finding is that a significant fraction of the post-Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon, suggesting that demand factors played...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Kurozumi, Takushi
作者单位：Bank of Japan
摘要：Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and accompanied by slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted? We address this issue by developing a model with endogenous TFP growth in which an adverse financial shock can induce a slow recovery. In the model, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much larger than wh...
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作者：Ongena, Steven; Popov, Alexander; Van Horen, Neeltje
作者单位：University of Zurich; KU Leuven; European Central Bank; Bank of England
摘要：Using proprietary data on banks' monthly securities holdings, we show that during the European sovereign debt crisis, domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of domestic sovereign bonds during months when the government needed to roll over a relatively large amount of maturing debt. This result cannot be explained by risk shifting, carry trading, or regulatory compliance. Domestic banks that received government s...
