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作者：Almgren, Mattias; Gallegos, Jose-Elias; Kramer, John; Lima, Ricardo
作者单位：Stockholm University; Banco de Espana; Stockholm University; University of Copenhagen
摘要：In 2016, 30 percent of households in Germany reported that they could not meet an unexpected, immediate expense of 985 euros. At the same time, 40 percent of Italian households reported that they would be unable to meet an unexpected expense of 800 euros.1 Figures like these suggest that a significant portion of households hold few liquid assets, which potentially makes them vulnerable to unexpected shocks to the economy. These households have received special attention recently, especially in...
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作者：Blandin, Adam; Herrington, Christopher
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Virginia Commonwealth University
摘要：From 1995 to 2015 the aggregate US college completion rate increased almost 50 percent, but completion trends differed markedly by family background. We consider whether changing college preparedness contributed to growth in aggregate completion and differences by family background. We first document parallel empirical trends in precollege investments, college preparedness, and completion. We use these moments to discipline a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital investment wit...
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作者：Peterman, William B.; Sager, Erick
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper determines optimal public debt in a life cycle model with incomplete markets that matches the empirically observed variation in consumption, labor, and savings. We find that public savings-not public debt-equal to 168 percent of output is optimal, primarily due to the influence of the life cycle on household decision-making. By inducing a lower interest rate, public savings slow consumption and leisure growth over an average household's lifetime, and the result-ing flatter allocatio...
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作者：Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Uppsala University; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment in a labor market search model with learning on the job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment and the job-finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs are the product of these two from the employment transition equation, business cycles imply fewer new jobs. Learning on the job implies that the resulting decrease in employment reduces aggregate human capital. This...
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作者：Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre K.
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School; Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet)
摘要：The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock-expansionary versus contractionary-and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply-inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elas-ticities. In supply-elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house pr...
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作者：Belot, Michele; Kircher, Philipp; Muller, Paul
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Edinburgh; Universite Catholique Louvain; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：In a field experiment, we study how job seekers respond to posted wages by assigning wages randomly to pairs of otherwise similar vacancies in a large number of professions. Higher wages attract significantly more interest. Still, a nontrivial number of applicants only reveal an interest in the low-wage vacancy. With a comple-mentary survey, we show that external raters perceive higher-wage jobs as more competitive. These findings qualitatively support core predictions of theories of directed/...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Liquidity traps can be either fundamental or confidence-driven. In a simple, unified New Keynesian framework, I provide the analytical condition for the latter's prevalence: enough shock persistence and endogenous intertemporal amplification of future (news) shocks, making income effects dominate substitution effects. The same condition allows neo-Fisherian effects (expansionary-inflationary interest rate increases), which are thus inherent in confidence traps. Several monetary and fiscal poli...
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作者：Gortz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Glasgow; University of Oxford
摘要：We examine the dynamic effects of TFP news shocks in the context of frictions in financial markets. We document two new facts. First, a shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in credit spread indicators along with a robust improvement in credit supply indi-cators. Second, we establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un-forecastable movements in credit spread indicators. A DSGE model enriched with a financial sector of the Gertler-Kiyota...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei; Rojas, Marco
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transfor-mation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantita-tive model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is ab...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; BI Norwegian Business School; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but q1 < q variables are used in an empirical model. Identified shocks are lin-ear combinations of current and past values of all structural dis-turbances and do not necessarily combine disturbances of the same type. Theory-based restrictions may be insufficient to obtain struc-tural dynamics. We revisit the evidence regarding the transmission of house price and of uncer...
