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作者：Gust, Christopher; Herbst, Edward; Lopez-Salido, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We estimate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon planning (FHP) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model as well as other behavioral NK models. In the FHP model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward-looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without resorting to addit...
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作者：Nakata, Taisuke; Schmidt, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Tokyo; European Central Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines in agents' confi-dence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven liquidity traps are not a useful guide for enhancing welfare in this model. Raising the inflation tar-get, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing for the use of government spending as an additional stabilization tool can exacerbate deflation...
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作者：V. Leahy, John; Thapar, Aditi
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to an identified monetary policy shock to study how the impact of mone-tary policy varies with the age structure of the population. We find that the economy's response is weaker the greater the share of population under 35 years of age and stronger the greater the share between 40 and 65. We find that all age groups become more responsive to mone-tary policy shocks when the proportion of the middle-aged increases. We provide evi...
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作者：Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Tsyvinski, Aleh
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We model the world economy as one system of endogenous input-out-put relationships subject to frictions and study how the world's input-output structure and world's GDP change due to changes in frictions. We derive a sufficient statistic to identify frictions from the observed world input-output matrix, which we fully match for the year 2011. We show how changes in internal frictions impact the whole structure of the world's economy and that they have a much larger effect on world's GDP than e...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study fiscal rules using a sovereign default model. A debt-brake (spread-brake) rule imposes a ceiling on the fiscal deficit when the sovereign debt (spread) is above a threshold. For our benchmark cali-bration, similar gains can be achieved with the optimal debt or spread brake. However, for a Union of heterogeneous economies, a com-mon spread brake generates larger gains than a common debt brake. Furthermore, gains from abandoning a common debt brake may be significant for economies that ...
