Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bilbiie, Florin O.
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200119
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 378-403
• 关键词: monetary-policy; interest-rates; fiscal-policy; rational-expectations; inflation; multiplier; DYNAMICS; models; perils; ZLB

摘要

Liquidity traps can be either fundamental or confidence-driven. In a simple, unified New Keynesian framework, I provide the analytical condition for the latter's prevalence: enough shock persistence and endogenous intertemporal amplification of future (news) shocks, making income effects dominate substitution effects. The same condition allows neo-Fisherian effects (expansionary-inflationary interest rate increases), which are thus inherent in confidence traps. Several monetary and fiscal policies (forward guidance, interest rate increases, public spending, labor tax cuts) have diametrically opposed effects according to the trap variety. This duality provides testable implications to disentangle between trap types; that is essen-tial, for optimal policies are also conflicting across trap varieties. (JELE12, E31, E32, E43, E52, E62)